The US Dollar Index advances to 101.80, bolstered by a 70% market expectation for a December Fed rate hike and safe-haven demand, as traders await the critical October Nonfarm Payrolls report.
The index recovered from its lowest level since late September to 101.80 on November 6, holding above the 100-hour EMA at 101.62 and the 38.2% retracement at 101.69. Bounce drivers are October NFP expectations of 65K new jobs, ~70% odds of a December Fed rate hike, higher bond yields and Iran-related safe-haven demand, but weekly losses persist and the NFP release is the decisive risk.
Follow-through buying lifted the Dollar Index to around 101.80, supported by expectations of 65K October job adds, roughly a 70% chance of a December Fed rate hike, a bounce in US bond yields and safe-haven demand tied to US-Iran tensions.
The US jobs report: 65K new jobs and a steady 4.2% unemployment rate are expected. Resistance sits near 101.84, 101.99 and 102.21, while support is at 101.69, 101.62 and 101.50.
A modest bounce in US bond yields followed the mid-week slump sparked by the US midterm elections, with ~70% odds of a December Fed rate hike supporting yields ahead of the NFP report. The move is modest and data-dependent, so the upside case is clear but not yet strong.
Yields are showing a modest bounce after a mid-week slump tied to the US midterm elections, with rate-hike odds near 70% for December lending support ahead of the jobs report.
Crude oil prices staged a sharp overnight recovery, which reignited inflationary concerns and indirectly supported the dollar via higher Fed rate-hike expectations. The recovery itself is noted only in passing, so the direct signal for oil is mild.
The overnight crude oil recovery reignited inflationary concerns, which bolstered expectations of further Fed tightening and supported the US Dollar Index.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to 101.80 during Friday's Asian session, recovering from late-September lows as markets brace for the October NFP report. Investors anticipate 65,000 new jobs, with current pricing reflecting a 70% probability of a December Federal Reserve rate hike. Rising bond yields and safe-haven demand stemming from US-Iran geopolitical tensions continue to provide underlying support for the Greenback.
The index is rising due to expectations of 65,000 new jobs in the October NFP report, a 70% probability of a December Fed rate hike, and increased safe-haven demand driven by US-Iran tensions.
Immediate resistance is located at 101.84, 101.99, and 102.21. Support levels are identified at 101.69, 101.62, and 101.50.