Societe Generale maintains a bullish outlook on the US Dollar, citing strong GDP, retail sales, and payroll growth as evidence of US economic outperformance against global peers.
Societe Generale points to two straight months of 0.3% m/m core CPI gains, headline CPI up 1% over two months, plus stronger-than-expected payrolls, retail sales and GDP, keeping the dollar supported while the US outperforms other economies. The upbeat view is the bank's interpretation rather than fresh data, and it flags possible future fiscal tightening and AI regulation as risks that could later weigh on the currency.
Societe Generale reports that the US Dollar maintains support due to a resilient domestic economy. Despite potential risks from future fiscal tightening and AI regulation, recent data shows core CPI rising 0.3% month-on-month for two consecutive months and headline CPI up 1% over the same period.
Societe Generale notes possible US fiscal tightening if the President and Congress struggle to reach agreement, plus widely assumed greater Congressional scrutiny of the AI industry, though it says these storm clouds lie beyond the horizon.