Energy security concerns are accelerating the global transition, with the IEA forecasting a 57% increase in renewable capacity additions through 2031, led by significant growth in onshore wind and solar.
The IEA now expects global renewable capacity to grow by almost 4,800 GW through 2031, a 57% increase versus the previous six years, and has raised its forecast for emerging and developing economies outside China by almost 20% versus a year earlier. Larger addressable growth for solar PV and onshore wind (onshore wind up over 70% to 2,040 GW) is a positive backdrop for clean energy equities, though an IEA forecast is a demand outlook rather than a hard earnings driver.
The IEA forecasts almost 4,800 GW of new renewable capacity in 2026-2031, 57% more than the previous six years, and says energy security is now the main driver — a larger market outlook for solar and wind companies.
The IEA's Renewables 2026 report forecasts almost 4,800 GW of new renewable capacity in 2026-2031, a 57% surge versus the prior six years, driven by energy security concerns after the Strait of Hormuz crisis and fuel price spike. Faster renewable deployment structurally weighs on long-term oil demand. However, this is a multi-year outlook with no near-term supply or demand change, so the effect on oil prices in the coming days to weeks is negligible.
The International Energy Agency projects a 57% surge in global renewable capacity, adding 4,800 GW between 2026 and 2031. Driven by energy security concerns following the Strait of Hormuz crisis and fuel price volatility, the report highlights a shift where emerging markets outside China will match the growth rates of advanced economies for the first time.
The IEA forecasts almost 4,800 GW of new renewable capacity in 2026-2031, 57% more than the previous six years, and says energy security is now the main driver — a larger market outlook for solar and wind companies.