FGE NexantECA projects a limited military strike on Iran in the coming weeks, signaling continued supply risks for global crude markets as the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained.
FGE NexantECA sees a high chance of a U.S./Israeli strike on Iran between mid-November and mid-December, before the new Congress convenes on January 3, with a blockade and sanctions staying in place. With Iran's exports near-zero and Hormuz flows not recovering until March 2027 in the base case, supply disruption risk supports crude prices over the next weeks.
The consultancy expects a possible U.S. or Israeli strike on Iran between mid-November and mid-December, while a blockade and sanctions keep Iranian exports near zero and disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz until at least March 2027.
The expected strike is meant to add pressure rather than end the conflict, and FGE still assumes talks resume in early 2027 with Hormuz flows gradually recovering from March 2027, which could cap the risk premium.
Escalation risk in the U.S.-Iran conflict over the next two months, with a possible strike before January 3 and Hormuz flows only recovering from March 2027, threatens a key artery for seaborne crude. That supply risk is bullish for Brent, though the expected strike aims to pressure rather than end the conflict.
A potential U.S. or Israeli strike on Iran in the mid-November to mid-December window, while the blockade keeps Iranian exports near zero and flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain derailed.
FGE's base case sees talks resuming in early 2027 and flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually recovering from March 2027.
Energy consultancy FGE NexantECA warns of a high probability of a U.S. or Israeli military strike on Iran between mid-November and mid-December. The firm anticipates that ongoing sanctions and a blockade will keep Iranian oil exports near zero, with significant disruptions to Strait of Hormuz flows expected to persist until at least March 2027.
The firm forecasts a potential U.S. or Israeli strike on Iran between mid-November and mid-December, which would maintain the current blockade and keep Iranian oil exports effectively halted.
FGE NexantECA's base case assumes that diplomatic talks will resume in early 2027, with oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz beginning a gradual recovery starting in March 2027.