ING expects the Turkish Lira to depreciate toward 51.50 against the dollar as the central bank resumes its easing cycle with 100bp cuts through December.
ING analyst Frantisek Taborsky projects that the Central Bank of Turkey will pivot toward monetary easing, initiating a series of 100bp rate cuts that will bring the policy rate down to 35% by the end of the year. This shift in interest rate policy, combined with the persistence of the carry trade, is expected to drive the USD/TRY exchange rate to 51.50 as the lira faces renewed depreciation pressure.
ING forecasts the USD/TRY exchange rate to reach 51.50 by year-end.
The policy rate is expected to reach 35% following a series of 100bp cuts.
ING analyst Frantisek Taborsky projects the Central Bank of Turkey will lower interest rates by 100 basis points to 36% this month. The firm anticipates further easing to 35% by year-end, citing improved inflation sentiment despite concerns over cooling domestic demand.
ING forecasts the USD/TRY pair will reach 51.50 by the end of the year as the central bank resumes monetary easing.
The bank cites improved inflation sentiment and contained fund-related risks as primary drivers for the shift toward a more accommodative policy stance.