Heads-up: USD CPI, CPI m/m came in worse than expected for USD (42 h ago), supports AUD/USD.
Heads-up: USD Core CPI n.s.a. m/m came in worse than the previous value for USD (42 h ago), supports AUD/USD.
Heads-up: USD Core CPI, Core CPI m/m came in better than expected for USD (42 h ago), weighs on AUD/USD.
Heads-up: high-impact releases ahead: USD Initial Jobless Claims (in 5 h), USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (in 9 h). The outlook can shift noticeably around them.
AUD/USD is in a firm downtrend on every timeframe, and last week's fall was unusually large for this pair. A hawkish Fed repricing after hot US inflation keeps rallies capped, though a bounce attempt from oversold levels is under way.
10 of 562 straight from the issuer or regulator
Trendlines, support and resistance and patterns come from the newest signal of the selected timeframe.
Direction, typical moves and upcoming dates from our own price, news and calendar data, recalculated on every visit. An assessment, not investment advice.
No price statement: our price history does not reach that far. Based on 562 news items.
All times UTC. Assessed against the consensus forecast, otherwise against the previous value. Price reaction measured on AUDUSD.
All timeframes from 15 minutes to the daily chart trend lower. The bullish signals on the 2-hour, 4-hour and 30-minute charts are oversold bounces inside that downtrend, not reversals. Resistance at 0.69309 and 0.70246 caps them; support at 0.68542 and 0.68436 marks the line.
One dot per day and source, 30 days. Technicals: trend across all timeframes at the close of the day. News: net direction of the day.
Last 72 hours
These reports concern one side of the pair. The label shows their effect on AUD/USD; in the news verdict they count half.
It was an unusually large move for the Aussie dollar against the US dollar. Hot US inflation and Waller's warning of a possible half-point December hike pushed rate-hike odds toward 85% and the dollar to a yearly high near 103, while the RBA signalled its hiking cycle is near its end - a widening policy gap that weighs on the pair.
Probably not yet. They are oversold exits and momentum crossovers on the 2-hour, 4-hour and 30-minute charts - bounce attempts within a downtrend that is intact from 15 minutes up to the daily chart. As long as resistance at 0.69309 and then 0.70246 holds, rallies look corrective; only a break above those levels would change the picture.
US jobless claims are due shortly and PPI follows in the coming days; retail sales and Australian unemployment arrive in about a week. Hotter-than-expected US readings would firm the dollar and weigh on the pair, while softer US numbers or a stronger Australian labour report would ease that pressure.
AUD/USD has been the subject of 230 signals across 230 articles in the last 365 days. Sentiment skews Bullish (43%).
Breakdown: 100 bullish, 97 bearish, 33 neutral.
Most-cited catalysts: Hawkish monetary policy stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (3×), Broad-based US dollar strength (2×), Broad-based weakness in the US Dollar (2×). Most-cited risk factors: Potential reversal in US Treasury yields (3×), Global risk-off sentiment (2×), Potential de-escalation of Middle East tensions (2×).
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