Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly stocks come under scrutiny as impending Ozempic and Mounjaro patent expirations threaten the GLP-1 revenue stream, forcing a pivot to Alzheimer's and cardiovascular pipelines.
Novo Nordisk's key growth driver, semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy), faces US patent expirations starting in 2026. The article highlights that Novo is accelerating pipeline diversification but faces investor skepticism about replacing GLP-1 revenues.
Semaglutide-based products account for roughly 60% of total revenue, making the patent cliff a major risk.
Key US patents begin expiring in 2026, with additional patents extending into the early 2030s for specific formulations.
Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound (tirzepatide) also face patent expirations in the late 2020s. The article notes Lilly's push into Alzheimer's with donanemab to offset future GLP-1 revenue losses.
Tirzepatide patents start expiring in 2029, giving Lilly a slightly longer runway than Novo.
Lilly has a broader pipeline including oncology and Alzheimer's, but GLP-1s still represent over 40% of revenue, creating significant concentration risk.
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly face a looming patent cliff as top-selling GLP-1 obesity drugs like Ozempic and Mounjaro near loss of exclusivity. The companies are accelerating pipeline diversification into next-gen weight-loss therapies, Alzheimer’s, and cardiovascular treatments to offset revenue erosion. Investors question whether new products can match the blockbuster status of GLP-1s, pressuring valuations.
Their blockbuster GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic (semaglutide) and Mounjaro (tirzepatide) are approaching patent expirations starting in 2026, which will allow generic and biosimilar competition, threatening their dominant market share and high margins.
They are expanding pipelines into next-generation obesity drugs, Alzheimer's treatments (Lilly's donanemab), cardiovascular therapies, and other metabolic conditions to reduce dependence on current GLP-1 products.