Nucor leads the steel sector with a 50% YTD gain as trade tensions with Canada persist, while Cleveland-Cliffs lags due to internal financial pressures despite the favorable tariff environment.
Nucor's scrap-based EAF steelmaking and 50%+ YTD gain make it a direct beneficiary of reduced Canadian steel competition under elevated tariffs.
Cleveland-Cliffs remains negative year-to-date due to balance sheet stress, which analysts say can outweigh the tariff-driven pricing advantages.
VanEck Steel ETF gained 1.6% on tariff escalation day and remains substantially up for 2026, reflecting steel sector tariff optimism.
Materials Select Sector SPDR hit an intraday high but slipped to negative by week-end amid volatile US-Canada trade headlines.
Steel markets face extreme volatility as US-Canada trade relations deteriorate into a tariff war. While Nucor Corporation has surged over 50% year-to-date due to its scrap-based EAF model, Cleveland-Cliffs continues to struggle with balance sheet concerns despite similar trade insulation. Analysts warn that ongoing retaliatory measures and economic uncertainty will likely keep the sector volatile for the foreseeable future.
While both benefit from reduced Canadian competition, Nucor's scrap-based EAF model and stronger financial position have driven a 50% YTD gain, whereas Cleveland-Cliffs is weighed down by persistent balance sheet stress.
Analysts, including those at Moody's, expect continued volatility as the trade war between the US and Canada shows no signs of a quick resolution, with retaliatory tariffs creating ongoing economic uncertainty.