The UK government has revised its oil price outlook, warning that $100 crude could persist until 2028 due to worsening Iran tensions, threatening global energy stability and consumer costs.
The UK government warns oil could stay at $100 per barrel through 2028 on worsening Iran tensions, indicating a bullish supply-disruption narrative that supports elevated crude prices.
The UK assessment sees a risk that Brent crude could remain above $100 per barrel until 2028.
The primary factor is the deteriorating geopolitical situation with Iran, which poses threats to oil supply from the Middle East.
Based on the UK's assessment, oil prices could stay elevated for years, buoyed by supply-side risks, though demand-side shocks could alter the trajectory.
The UK government's internal assessment warns that oil prices could remain above $100 per barrel through 2028 as tensions with Iran escalate. The outlook factors in potential supply disruptions from the Middle East, which could keep energy costs elevated for consumers and businesses. The projection marks a longer-than-expected period of high crude prices, challenging earlier forecasts of easing.
The UK has revised its internal assessment to warn that oil prices could remain at $100 per barrel until 2028, driven by escalating tensions with Iran.
Iran is a major oil producer and tensions raise the risk of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global crude shipments.
The assessment reflects internal government analysis and may incorporate intelligence and policy scenarios, though oil prices remain influenced by unpredictable geopolitical and economic factors.