WTI crude oil remains under bearish pressure, capped by the 100-day SMA at $86.81 as record US production and rising inventories offset geopolitical risk premiums from the Middle East.
Price trades below the 100-day SMA at $86.81, with RSI near the low-30s and MACD negative, pointing to persistent downside. Rising US inventories (API +9 million barrels, record output week ending October 30) cap rallies, even though the closed Strait of Hormuz keeps a geopolitical premium in play.
WTI crude oil struggles to maintain momentum as it trades below the 100-day SMA of $86.81. Despite geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, rising US inventories and record production levels continue to weigh on prices, keeping the near-term outlook bearish.
Because the geopolitical support is being offset by rising US supplies: inventories rose about 9 million barrels in the week ending November 6 and production set a new record, while the price sits below the 100-day SMA at $86.81.
Support lies at $85.61 (50.0% Fibonacci), then $81.26 (61.8%) and $75.06 (78.6%); resistance sits at the 100-day SMA at $86.81 and the 38.2% retracement at $89.96, with the cycle high near $104.04 further above.