USD/JPY – 4H – SELL

2026-07-29 20:00 UTC · 13 hours ago

SELL

77%

▼ SELL

STRONG

Swing

Prognose: 26% historisch

▲ Bullish 23% (5.85) ▼ Bearish 77% (19.85)

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Signal evolution

Signals Fired

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	WILLR OB Exit	indicator	2.37
▲	CCI OB Exit	indicator	2.02
▼	APO Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.57
▼	HT SINE Cross Down	indicator	1.55
▼	CMO Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.50
▼	RSI Midline Cross Down	indicator	1.50
▼	Trendline Retreat Down	trendline	1.48
▲	DX Trend Strong	indicator	1.46
▼	BBANDS MIDDLE Cross Down	indicator	1.46
▼	MOM Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.43
▼	ROC Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.43
▼	ROCR Cross Down	indicator	1.43
▼	Fibonacci Retreat DownTrend (100%)	fibonacci	1.40
▼	STOCHF KD Cross Down	indicator	1.38
▼	Resistance Level Retreat Down	sr	1.33
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.16
▼	Tweezers Top	candlestick	1.02
▼	Bearish Engulfing	candlestick	0.81

Trend Context

15M

DOWNVery strong trend

30M

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

12H

UPTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bearish signal with high probability and strong strength on 4H.
Multiple indicators confirm bearish momentum: zero-cross downs, trendline rejection, and overbought exit.
Shorter timeframes (15m-4H) are bearish, but higher timeframes (12H-1D) remain bullish, creating a potential conflict.
Key levels: resistance at 163.984, support at 163.325.

USD/JPY has fired a strong bearish signal on the 4H timeframe, with a high probability (77%) and strong strength. The signal is supported by a confluence of indicators, candlestick patterns, Fibonacci levels, support/resistance, and trendline analysis. Specifically, the Trendline Retreat Down indicates a rejection from a downward trendline, while multiple zero-cross downs (APO, BOP, CMO, MOM, ROC) confirm bearish momentum. The CCI OB Exit suggests overbought conditions have reversed, and the DX Trend Strong signals a robust downtrend. The trend across timeframes is predominantly bearish from 15m to 4H, with the strongest bearish trend on the 15m and 30m. However, higher timeframes (12H and 1D) are still bullish, indicating potential resistance to further downside. Key levels to watch: nearest resistance at 163.984 and nearest support at 163.325. A break below support could accelerate selling, while a bounce from support might lead to consolidation or reversal.

Catalysts

▼ Confluence of over 15 bearish signals across indicator, candlestick, Fibonacci, support/resistance, and trendline groups.
▼ Strong bearish trend on lower timeframes (15m, 30m, 1H) aligning with the 4H signal.
▼ DX Trend Strong indicates the downtrend is robust and likely to continue.
▼ CCI OB Exit suggests overbought conditions have unwound, favoring further downside.

Risk Factors

▲ Higher timeframes (12H, 1D) are still bullish, which could limit downside or cause a reversal.
▲ The 4H trend is choppy/sideways (trend score 1/5), indicating potential for false breaks or consolidation.
▲ Nearest support at 163.325 may act as a strong floor, leading to a bounce if tested.
▲ Fading momentum: if the bearish signals weaken or new bullish signals emerge, the sell-off could stall.