AUD/JPY – 30M – BUY
BUY
82%
▲ Bullish 82% (36.29)
▼ Bearish 18% (8.17)
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Signal evolution
Signals Fired
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ | Trendline Break Up | trendline | 2.69 |
| ▲ | KAMA Retreat Up | indicator | 2.69 |
| ▲ | EMA Retreat Up | indicator | 2.68 |
| ▲ | MAMA PRICE Retreat Up | indicator | 2.60 |
| ▲ | HT TRENDLINE Retreat Up | indicator | 2.45 |
| ▲ | SMA Retreat Up | indicator | 2.37 |
| ▲ | MIDPRICE Retreat Up | indicator | 2.34 |
| ▲ | MIDPOINT Retreat Up | indicator | 2.33 |
| ▼ | Fibonacci Break DownTrend (0%) | fibonacci | 2.33 |
| ▲ | MA Retreat Up | indicator | 2.31 |
| ▲ | STOCHF KD Cross Up | indicator | 1.99 |
| ▲ | BOP Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.69 |
| ▲ | AROON Cross Up | indicator | 1.61 |
| ▲ | AROONOSC Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.61 |
| ▲ | AROON Strong Uptrend | indicator | 1.54 |
| ▲ | Belt Hold Bullish | candlestick | 1.25 |
Trend Context
15MUPChoppy / sideways
30MUPTrend forming
1HUPTrend forming
2HDOWNSolid trend
4HDOWNVery strong trend
8HDOWNSolid trend
12HDOWNSolid trend
1DDOWNTrend forming
Analysis
🎯 Key Takeaways
- Short-term bullish signals are strong on the 30-minute chart, with multiple indicators aligning (trendline break, AROON, STOCHF).
- Higher timeframes (2h and above) are bearish, creating a conflict that could limit upside.
- Watch the nearest resistance at 111.02100; a break above would strengthen the bullish case, while a failure could lead to a reversal.
- The nearest support at 109.23100 is critical; a break below would invalidate the bullish signals.
The AUD/JPY 30-minute chart has fired a dense cluster of bullish signals, including a Trendline Break Up, AROON Cross Up, and STOCHF KD Cross Up, alongside a BOP Zero Cross Up indicating improving buying pressure. These signals align with the short-term trend, which is bullish on the 15-minute, 30-minute, and 1-hour timeframes, though the 30-minute and 1-hour trends are still forming (2/5 strength). The confluence of multiple indicators on the 30-minute chart suggests a potential upward move, with immediate resistance at 111.02100 and support at 109.23100.
However, the higher timeframes (2h, 4h, 8h, 12h, 1d) are all bearish, with the 4-hour trend being very strong (4/5). This creates a significant divergence: the short-term bullish signals are fighting against a dominant longer-term downtrend. The bullish move may be a counter-trend rally within the larger bearish structure, and its sustainability is questionable. Traders should watch whether the price can break above the nearest resistance at 111.02100, which would confirm the bullish momentum, or if it fails and resumes the downtrend, with the nearest support at 109.23100 as a key invalidation level.
However, the higher timeframes (2h, 4h, 8h, 12h, 1d) are all bearish, with the 4-hour trend being very strong (4/5). This creates a significant divergence: the short-term bullish signals are fighting against a dominant longer-term downtrend. The bullish move may be a counter-trend rally within the larger bearish structure, and its sustainability is questionable. Traders should watch whether the price can break above the nearest resistance at 111.02100, which would confirm the bullish momentum, or if it fails and resumes the downtrend, with the nearest support at 109.23100 as a key invalidation level.
Catalysts
- ▲ Confluence of multiple bullish signals on the 30-minute chart (trendline break, AROON cross, STOCHF cross, BOP zero cross).
- ▲ Short-term trend alignment across 15m, 30m, and 1h timeframes, all bullish.
- ▲ Momentum indicators (STOCHF, BOP) are turning upward, suggesting increasing buying pressure.
- ▲ The trendline break and AROON strong uptrend indicate a potential shift in short-term momentum.
Risk Factors
- ▼ Higher timeframe trends (2h, 4h, 8h, 12h, 1d) are bearish, with the 4h trend very strong, which could overpower the short-term bullish move.
- ▼ The 30-minute and 1-hour trends are only 'trend forming' (2/5 strength), indicating the bullish trend is not yet solid.
- ▼ A break below the nearest support at 109.23100 would invalidate the bullish signals and could accelerate the downtrend.
- ▼ The short-term bullish move may be a counter-trend rally within a larger downtrend, risking a quick reversal if resistance holds.
Symbol
AUD/JPY
Timeframe
30M
Direction
BUY
Probability
82%
Strength
STRONG
Date
2026-08-04 21:00
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 111.02100 | 2026-08-04 |
| R2 | 112.98000 | 2026-07-31 |
| R3 | 113.95000 | 2026-07-30 |
| S1 | 109.23100 | 2026-08-03 |