USD/JPY – 4H – BUY

2026-08-04 16:00 UTC · 13 hours ago

BUY

65%

▲ BUY

MODERATE

Swing

Prognose: 30% historisch

▲ Bullish 65% (4.60) ▼ Bearish 35% (2.47)

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Signal evolution

Signals Fired

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	Bear Flag	chart_pattern	2.97
▲	Fibonacci Retreat UpTrend (79%)	fibonacci	2.07
▲	MAMA PRICE Retreat Up	indicator	1.97
▲	STOCH OB Exit	indicator	1.87
▲	MOM Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.42
▲	ROC Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.42
▲	ROCR Cross Up	indicator	1.42
▲	DEMA Retreat Up	indicator	1.36
▲	HT SINE Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.26
▲	Dragonfly Doji	candlestick	0.99
▲	Hammer	candlestick	0.99
▲	BOP Zero Cross Up	indicator	0.79

Trend Context

15M

UPChoppy / sideways

30M

UPChoppy / sideways

DOWNVery strong trend

12H

DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Multiple momentum indicators (MOM, ROC, ROCR, BOP) all crossed above zero, signaling bullish momentum in the short term.
The Bear Flag pattern suggests a potential bullish continuation after a brief consolidation, but it is within a larger downtrend.
Higher timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H) are strongly bearish, so this is a counter-trend bounce, not a confirmed reversal.
Watch the nearest resistance at 163.94700 and support at 155.22400 for breakout or invalidation.

The USD/JPY 4H signal fires a BUY with strong conviction (80% probability) driven by a cluster of momentum and pattern indicators: a Bear Flag, BOP Zero Cross Up, MOM Zero Cross Up, ROC Zero Cross Up, ROCR Cross Up, STOCH OB Exit, DEMA Retreat Up, and MAMA PRICE Retreat Up. These signals collectively suggest that the recent bearish move may be pausing or reversing, with momentum shifting upward. However, the higher timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H) remain in a very strong bearish trend, while the 1H and lower timeframes are bullish but choppy. This divergence indicates that the buy signal is likely a counter-trend bounce within a larger downtrend, not a reversal.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 163.94700 and support at 155.22400. A break above resistance would signal a stronger bullish move, while a drop below support would invalidate the bullish thesis and likely resume the bearish trend. Given the strong bearish alignment on higher timeframes, traders should treat this as a tactical long opportunity with tight risk management, expecting limited upside unless the price can reclaim higher timeframe resistance levels.

Catalysts

▲ Confluence of multiple momentum oscillators (MOM, ROC, ROCR) crossing above zero, indicating strong buying pressure.
▲ The DEMA and MAMA price retreats up suggest that price is pulling back to moving averages and finding support, a classic bullish setup.
▲ The STOCH OB Exit indicates that the stochastic oscillator is leaving overbought territory, which can precede a bullish move.
▲ The Bear Flag pattern is a bullish continuation pattern, and its appearance after a downtrend may signal a temporary bottom.

Risk Factors

▼ The higher timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H) are in a very strong bearish trend, which could overwhelm the bullish momentum from the lower timeframes.
▼ The nearest resistance at 163.94700 is a significant barrier; if price fails to break above it, the bullish signal may fail.
▼ The bullish signals are on the 4H timeframe, but the 1H and lower timeframes are choppy and weak (trend score 1/5), indicating a lack of strong trend confirmation.
▼ A drop below the nearest support at 155.22400 would invalidate the bullish setup and likely resume the larger downtrend.