USD/JPY – 2H – BUY
BUY
81%
▲ Bullish 81% (21.47)
▼ Bearish 19% (4.93)
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Signal evolution
Signals Fired
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ | STOCHF KD Cross Up | indicator | 2.16 |
| ▲ | BOP Zero Cross Up | indicator | 2.06 |
| ▲ | AROON Cross Up | indicator | 1.63 |
| ▲ | AROONOSC Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.63 |
| ▲ | Fibonacci Retreat UpTrend (79%) | fibonacci | 1.62 |
| ▲ | AROON Strong Uptrend | indicator | 1.55 |
| ▲ | CCI Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.49 |
| ▲ | DEMA Retreat Up | indicator | 1.47 |
| ▲ | BBANDS MIDDLE Cross Up | indicator | 1.45 |
| ▲ | MA Retreat Up | indicator | 1.41 |
| ▲ | Bullish Engulfing | candlestick | 1.30 |
| ▲ | BBANDS LOWER Retreat Up | indicator | 1.10 |
| ▲ | Closing Marubozu Bullish | candlestick | 0.97 |
| ▼ | WILLR OB Entry | indicator | 0.72 |
Trend Context
15MUPChoppy / sideways
30MDOWNTrend forming
1HDOWNChoppy / sideways
2HDOWNSolid trend
4HDOWNVery strong trend
8HDOWNVery strong trend
12HDOWNVery strong trend
1DDOWNSolid trend
Analysis
🎯 Key Takeaways
- A powerful 2H bullish signal fires against a strong bearish trend on higher timeframes.
- Watch for a break above 157.954 to confirm the reversal; failure could see a resumption of the downtrend.
- The 155.224 support is the key invalidation level for this long setup.
- Higher timeframe trends (4H, 8H, 12H) remain strongly bearish, so this is a counter-trend trade with elevated risk.
The 2H USD/JPY signal is overwhelmingly bullish, with a 97% probability and very strong strength, driven by a cluster of momentum and volatility indicators firing in unison: AROON Cross Up, AROON Strong Uptrend, CCI Zero Cross Up, STOCHF KD Cross Up, and WILLR OB Entry, among others. This suggests that the bearish trend that has dominated higher timeframes (4H, 8H, 12H) may be losing steam, and a corrective bounce or reversal is underway. The confluence of these signals on the 2H chart points to a potential short-term long opportunity, with the nearest resistance at 157.954 and support at 155.224.
However, the higher timeframes remain firmly bearish, with 4H, 8H, and 12H all showing very strong downtrends. This creates a conflict: the 2H signal is counter-trend relative to the broader picture. The lower timeframes are mixed (15m bullish but choppy, 30m and 1h bearish), indicating that the bullish signal may be premature or part of a larger corrective pattern. Traders should watch whether price can break above the 157.954 resistance to confirm a deeper reversal, or if it fails and resumes the dominant downtrend. The 2H support at 155.224 is critical; a break below would invalidate the bullish setup.
However, the higher timeframes remain firmly bearish, with 4H, 8H, and 12H all showing very strong downtrends. This creates a conflict: the 2H signal is counter-trend relative to the broader picture. The lower timeframes are mixed (15m bullish but choppy, 30m and 1h bearish), indicating that the bullish signal may be premature or part of a larger corrective pattern. Traders should watch whether price can break above the 157.954 resistance to confirm a deeper reversal, or if it fails and resumes the dominant downtrend. The 2H support at 155.224 is critical; a break below would invalidate the bullish setup.
Catalysts
- ▲ Multiple momentum indicators (AROON, CCI, STOCHF, WILLR) align on the 2H chart, signaling strong buying pressure.
- ▲ The signal includes a retreat from the lower Bollinger Band, often indicating a bounce from oversold conditions.
- ▲ Fibonacci levels may provide additional confluence for a rebound.
- ▲ The 2H signal's very strong strength (97% probability) suggests high conviction in the short-term move.
Risk Factors
- ▼ The 4H, 8H, and 12H timeframes are in very strong downtrends, which could overwhelm the 2H bullish signal.
- ▼ The 1H and 30M timeframes are still bearish, showing no confirmation from the immediate higher timeframes.
- ▼ The nearest resistance at 157.954 is a significant barrier; if price fails there, the bullish signal may fade.
- ▼ A break below the 155.224 support would invalidate the setup and likely lead to a continuation of the broader downtrend.
Symbol
USD/JPY
Timeframe
2H
Direction
BUY
Probability
81%
Strength
STRONG
Date
2026-08-05 18:00
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 157.95400 | 2026-08-04 |
| R2 | 163.90400 | 2026-07-29 |
| R3 | 163.94700 | 2026-07-28 |
| S1 | 155.22400 | 2026-08-03 |
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