USD/JPY 2H BUY

· 14 hours ago
BUY
81%
▲ BUY
STRONG
Intraday
Prognose: 40% historisch
⚡ Confluence +17%
▲ Bullish 81% (21.47) ▼ Bearish 19% (4.93)
USD/JPY  ·  2H
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Signal evolution

Signals Fired

Signals Fired Category Weight
STOCHF KD Cross Up indicator 2.16
BOP Zero Cross Up indicator 2.06
AROON Cross Up indicator 1.63
AROONOSC Zero Cross Up indicator 1.63
Fibonacci Retreat UpTrend (79%) fibonacci 1.62
AROON Strong Uptrend indicator 1.55
CCI Zero Cross Up indicator 1.49
DEMA Retreat Up indicator 1.47
BBANDS MIDDLE Cross Up indicator 1.45
MA Retreat Up indicator 1.41
Bullish Engulfing candlestick 1.30
BBANDS LOWER Retreat Up indicator 1.10
Closing Marubozu Bullish candlestick 0.97
WILLR OB Entry indicator 0.72

Trend Context

15M
UPChoppy / sideways
30M
DOWNTrend forming
1H
DOWNChoppy / sideways
2H
DOWNSolid trend
4H
DOWNVery strong trend
8H
DOWNVery strong trend
12H
DOWNVery strong trend
1D
DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways
  • A powerful 2H bullish signal fires against a strong bearish trend on higher timeframes.
  • Watch for a break above 157.954 to confirm the reversal; failure could see a resumption of the downtrend.
  • The 155.224 support is the key invalidation level for this long setup.
  • Higher timeframe trends (4H, 8H, 12H) remain strongly bearish, so this is a counter-trend trade with elevated risk.
The 2H USD/JPY signal is overwhelmingly bullish, with a 97% probability and very strong strength, driven by a cluster of momentum and volatility indicators firing in unison: AROON Cross Up, AROON Strong Uptrend, CCI Zero Cross Up, STOCHF KD Cross Up, and WILLR OB Entry, among others. This suggests that the bearish trend that has dominated higher timeframes (4H, 8H, 12H) may be losing steam, and a corrective bounce or reversal is underway. The confluence of these signals on the 2H chart points to a potential short-term long opportunity, with the nearest resistance at 157.954 and support at 155.224.

However, the higher timeframes remain firmly bearish, with 4H, 8H, and 12H all showing very strong downtrends. This creates a conflict: the 2H signal is counter-trend relative to the broader picture. The lower timeframes are mixed (15m bullish but choppy, 30m and 1h bearish), indicating that the bullish signal may be premature or part of a larger corrective pattern. Traders should watch whether price can break above the 157.954 resistance to confirm a deeper reversal, or if it fails and resumes the dominant downtrend. The 2H support at 155.224 is critical; a break below would invalidate the bullish setup.
Catalysts
  • Multiple momentum indicators (AROON, CCI, STOCHF, WILLR) align on the 2H chart, signaling strong buying pressure.
  • The signal includes a retreat from the lower Bollinger Band, often indicating a bounce from oversold conditions.
  • Fibonacci levels may provide additional confluence for a rebound.
  • The 2H signal's very strong strength (97% probability) suggests high conviction in the short-term move.
Risk Factors
  • The 4H, 8H, and 12H timeframes are in very strong downtrends, which could overwhelm the 2H bullish signal.
  • The 1H and 30M timeframes are still bearish, showing no confirmation from the immediate higher timeframes.
  • The nearest resistance at 157.954 is a significant barrier; if price fails there, the bullish signal may fade.
  • A break below the 155.224 support would invalidate the setup and likely lead to a continuation of the broader downtrend.
Symbol USD/JPY
Timeframe 2H
Direction BUY
Probability 81%
Strength STRONG
Date 2026-08-05 18:00
cat_ Forex Forex

Support & Resistance

Level Price Formed
R1 157.95400 2026-08-04
R2 163.90400 2026-07-29
R3 163.94700 2026-07-28
S1 155.22400 2026-08-03

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