USD/JPY – 2H – BUY

2026-08-05 06:00 UTC · 14 hours ago

BUY

91%

▲ BUY

VERY STRONG

Intraday

Prognose: 61% historisch

⚡ Confluence +60%

▲ Bullish 91% (40.39) ▼ Bearish 9% (3.78)

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Signal evolution

Signals Fired

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	Bear Flag	chart_pattern	4.12
▲	STOCHF KD Cross Up	indicator	2.10
▲	BOP Zero Cross Up	indicator	2.02
▼	AROON Cross Down	indicator	1.74
▼	AROONOSC Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.74
▲	Fibonacci Retreat UpTrend (79%)	fibonacci	1.56
▲	DEMA Retreat Up	indicator	1.42
▲	HT TRENDLINE Retreat Up	indicator	1.41
▲	MA Retreat Up	indicator	1.34
▲	Bullish Engulfing	candlestick	1.22

Trend Context

15M

UPTrend forming

30M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

DOWNVery strong trend

12H

DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

A short-term bullish bounce is forming on the 2H chart, but the higher-timeframe trend is strongly bearish.
Multiple indicators (AROON, BOP, STOCHF, DEMA, MA) align for a possible corrective move up.
Watch the 163.90400 resistance; a break could extend the bounce, while 155.22400 support is the invalidation zone.
The signal is weak (63% probability), so position sizing should be conservative.

The USD/JPY 2H signal fires a BUY despite a predominantly bearish higher-timeframe backdrop, driven by a cluster of short-term reversal cues. The Bear Flag pattern, AROON Cross Down, and AROONOSC Zero Cross Down suggest a temporary pause in the downtrend, while BOP Zero Cross Up, STOCHF KD Cross Up, DEMA Retreat Up, HT TRENDLINE Retreat Up, and MA Retreat Up indicate a bounce attempt. These signals align on the 2H timeframe, but the broader trend remains strongly bearish across 4H, 8H, 12H, and 1D, with the 15M showing early bullish formation. The overall picture is a counter-trend correction within a dominant downtrend.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 163.90400, which could cap any upside, and the nearest support at 155.22400, a critical floor. The signal's weak strength and 63% probability suggest limited conviction. Traders should treat this as a potential short-term long opportunity, but be cautious given the conflicting higher-timeframe trend. A break above resistance could signal a deeper correction, while a move below support would invalidate the bullish setup and likely resume the broader downtrend.

Catalysts

▲ Confluence of multiple signal types (indicator, candlestick, chart pattern) on the 2H timeframe.
▲ Bear Flag pattern suggests a potential upside breakout after a consolidation.
▲ BOP and STOCHF turning up indicate improving buying pressure in the short term.
▲ Retreat of DEMA, HT TRENDLINE, and MA from oversold levels supports a bounce.

Risk Factors

▼ The higher timeframes (4H, 8H, 12H, 1D) are all strongly bearish, which could overwhelm the short-term bounce.
▼ The signal strength is weak, and the 2H trend score is very strong bearish (4/5), meaning the bounce may be short-lived.
▼ A drop below the nearest support at 155.22400 would invalidate the bullish setup and likely accelerate the downtrend.
▼ The 30M, 1H, and 2H timeframes are bearish or choppy, showing a lack of alignment for a sustained move up.