AUD/JPY – 4H – SELL

2026-08-18 20:00 UTC · 12 hours ago

SELL

88%

▼ SELL

VERY STRONG

Swing

Prognose: 36% historisch

▲ Bullish 12% (2.67) ▼ Bearish 88% (19.42)

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Signal evolution

Events for AUD/JPY

Full calendar

23:50TodayJPYExports YoY (Jul)●●○Previous 19.3in 10h
23:50TodayJPYBalance of Trade (Jul)●●○Previous -406.9in 10h
01:30TomorrowAUDFull Time Employment Chg (Jul)●●○Previous 29.3in 12h

All times UTC.

Signals Fired

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	MAMA PRICE Break Down	indicator	2.26
▼	DEMA Break Down	indicator	2.25
▲	Trendline Break Up	trendline	2.06
▲	EMA CROSS 50 200 Golden Cross	indicator	1.90
▼	MACD Signal Cross Down	indicator	1.63
▼	Fibonacci Break DownTrend (24%)	fibonacci	1.42
▼	SAR Flip Bearish	indicator	1.35
▼	CCI Zero Cross Down	indicator	0.88

Trend Context

15M

DOWNSolid trend

30M

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

UPTrend forming

UPChoppy / sideways

12H

UPTrend forming

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bearish momentum on the 4H with multiple indicators aligning.
Lower timeframes confirm the bearish trend, but higher timeframes are still bullish.
Watch for a test of support at 110.76500; a break could open further downside.
The Golden Cross on 50/200 EMA is a conflicting bullish signal on the 4H.

The 4H AUD/JPY chart has fired a cluster of bearish signals, including a Trendline Break Down, CCI Zero Cross Down, MACD Signal Cross Down, DEMA Break Down, MAMA Price Break Down, SAR Flip Bearish, and a Fibonacci Break Down. This confluence of momentum, trend, and volatility signals points to sustained selling pressure. The bearish momentum is supported by lower timeframes (15m to 1h) all showing solid bearish trends, and the daily chart is also turning bearish. However, the higher timeframes (4H, 8H, 12H) remain bullish, which could limit downside potential.

Key levels to watch are the nearest support at 110.76500 and resistance at 114.65800. The cluster of breakdowns suggests a move toward support is likely, but the conflicting higher timeframe trends mean that a bounce from support is possible. The Golden Cross on the 50/200 EMA is a bullish signal on the 4H, which adds to the caution. Traders should monitor price action around these levels for confirmation or invalidation of the bearish bias.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple signals firing together (trendline, CCI, MACD, DEMA, MAMA, SAR, Fibonacci) indicate strong selling pressure.
▼ Bearish trend across 15m, 30m, and 1h timeframes supports the 4H signal.
▼ Breakdown of Fibonacci levels suggests a potential extension of the move.
▼ Daily chart is turning bearish, aligning with the lower timeframe trends.

Risk Factors

▲ Higher timeframes (4H, 8H, 12H) are still bullish, which could limit downside or cause a reversal.
▲ The Golden Cross on the 50/200 EMA is a bullish signal that may counteract the bearish momentum.
▲ If price fails to break below support at 110.76500, the bearish signal could be invalidated.
▲ Momentum could fade if the CCI or MACD show bullish divergence on lower timeframes.