USD/JPY – 12H – SELL
SELL
81%
▲ Bullish 19% (6.01)
▼ Bearish 81% (25.09)
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Signal evolution
Events for USD/JPY
Full calendar- TodayUSDEIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Aug/14)●●●in 46m
- TodayUSDEIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Aug/14)●●○in 46m
- TodayUSDFOMC Minutes●●●in 4h
All times UTC.
Signals Fired
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ | Bull Flag | chart_pattern | 3.24 |
| ▼ | Trendline Break Down | trendline | 1.99 |
| ▼ | EMA 200 Retreat Down | indicator | 1.57 |
| ▼ | Fibonacci Retreat DownTrend (50%) | fibonacci | 1.54 |
| ▼ | STOCHF KD Cross Down | indicator | 1.19 |
| ▲ | Northern Doji | candlestick | 1.19 |
| ▼ | BOP Zero Cross Down | indicator | 1.11 |
| ▼ | SMA 200 Retreat Down | indicator | 1.07 |
| ▼ | Bearish Harami Cross | candlestick | 0.97 |
Trend Context
15MDOWNChoppy / sideways
30MDOWNChoppy / sideways
1HDOWNChoppy / sideways
2HDOWNChoppy / sideways
4HDOWNTrend forming
8HDOWNSolid trend
12HDOWNSolid trend
1DDOWNSolid trend
Analysis
🎯 Key Takeaways
- Multiple bearish signals align: trendline break, bear flag, and moving average retreats.
- Consistent bearish trend across all timeframes, with solid scores on higher timeframes.
- Key resistance at 163.98400; a break above would invalidate the bearish bias.
- Downside target is support at 155.22400, but watch for momentum shifts.
The USD/JPY 12H signal is strongly bearish, with a confluence of technical events aligning to confirm downside momentum. The trendline break down, bear flag pattern, and multiple moving average retreats (EMA 200 and SMA 200) indicate that the pair is under selling pressure from a broader downtrend. The BOP zero cross down and STOCHF KD cross down reinforce the bearish momentum, while the Fibonacci retreat at the 50% level suggests that the recent bounce has stalled, providing a fresh entry for sellers. The candlestick pattern (Northern Doji) adds a note of indecision, but in the context of the other signals, it likely represents a pause before further declines.
Across timeframes, the trend is consistently bearish, with solid trend scores (3/5) on the 8H, 12H, and 1D charts, while the 4H shows a forming trend (2/5). The lower timeframes (15m to 2h) are choppy and sideways, but they still lean bearish, indicating that the overall direction is intact. The nearest resistance at 163.98400 is a critical level to watch; a break above it would invalidate the bearish setup, while the nearest support at 155.22400 serves as the primary downside target. Traders should monitor price action around these levels for confirmation.
Across timeframes, the trend is consistently bearish, with solid trend scores (3/5) on the 8H, 12H, and 1D charts, while the 4H shows a forming trend (2/5). The lower timeframes (15m to 2h) are choppy and sideways, but they still lean bearish, indicating that the overall direction is intact. The nearest resistance at 163.98400 is a critical level to watch; a break above it would invalidate the bearish setup, while the nearest support at 155.22400 serves as the primary downside target. Traders should monitor price action around these levels for confirmation.
Catalysts
- ▼ Trend alignment across multiple timeframes (8H, 12H, 1D) with solid bearish scores.
- ▼ Confluence of bearish patterns: trendline break, bear flag, and Fibonacci retreat.
- ▼ Momentum indicators (BOP, STOCHF) confirm bearish pressure.
- ▼ Price holding below resistance levels supports continuation.
Risk Factors
- ▲ A break above the nearest resistance at 163.98400 would invalidate the bearish setup.
- ▲ Choppy lower timeframes (15m-2h) could lead to sideways consolidation before further decline.
- ▲ The Northern Doji suggests indecision; a bullish reversal pattern could emerge if price stabilizes.
- ▲ If the 4H trend fails to solidify, the bearish momentum may fade.
Symbol
USD/JPY
Timeframe
12H
Direction
SELL
Probability
81%
Strength
STRONG
Date
2026-08-18 12:00
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 163.98400 | 2026-07-23 |
| S1 | 155.22400 | 2026-08-03 |
| S2 | 155.03600 | 2026-05-06 |
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