USD/JPY – 8H – SELL
SELL
76%
▲ Bullish 24% (5.32)
▼ Bearish 76% (17.27)
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Signal evolution
Events for USD/JPY
Full calendar- TodayUSDMBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Aug/14)●●○in 5h
- TodayUSDEIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Aug/14)●●○in 8h
- TodayUSDEIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Aug/14)●●●in 8h
All times UTC.
Signals Fired
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ | Bull Pennant | chart_pattern | 3.35 |
| ▼ | Trendline Break Down | trendline | 2.65 |
| ▼ | EMA 50 Retreat Down | indicator | 2.50 |
| ▼ | SMA 50 Retreat Down | indicator | 2.21 |
| ▼ | BOP Zero Cross Down | indicator | 1.94 |
| ▼ | Fibonacci Retreat DownTrend (50%) | fibonacci | 1.79 |
| ▼ | STOCHF KD Cross Down | indicator | 1.58 |
| ▼ | HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down | indicator | 1.17 |
| ▲ | Long Legged Doji | candlestick | 1.17 |
Trend Context
15MDOWNTrend forming
30MDOWNChoppy / sideways
1HDOWNChoppy / sideways
2HDOWNChoppy / sideways
4HDOWNTrend forming
8HDOWNSolid trend
12HDOWNSolid trend
1DDOWNSolid trend
Analysis
🎯 Key Takeaways
- Strong bearish confluence on the 8H chart with multiple signals aligning.
- All timeframes are bearish, with higher timeframes showing solid downtrends.
- Watch for a break below 156.672 support to confirm further downside.
- Resistance at 163.984 caps any bounce; a close above it would invalidate the bearish setup.
The USD/JPY 8H chart has fired a dense cluster of bearish signals, led by a Trendline Break Down and a Bull Pennant breakdown, with momentum and trend indicators aligning to the downside. The STOCHF KD Cross Down and BOP Zero Cross Down confirm selling pressure, while the EMA 50 and SMA 50 Retreat Down indicate that price is pulling back from key moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. The Fibonacci Retreat DownTrend (50%) suggests that the pair has retraced to a significant level within the downtrend, providing a potential entry zone for sellers.
Across timeframes, the bias is consistently bearish, though the lower timeframes (15m to 2H) show a weaker trend formation, while the 8H, 12H, and 1D all exhibit solid downtrends. This alignment supports the continuation of the move lower. The nearest resistance at 163.984 acts as a barrier to any upside correction, while the nearest support at 156.672 is the primary downside target. A break below this support would open the door for further declines, but until then, the bearish momentum is expected to persist.
Across timeframes, the bias is consistently bearish, though the lower timeframes (15m to 2H) show a weaker trend formation, while the 8H, 12H, and 1D all exhibit solid downtrends. This alignment supports the continuation of the move lower. The nearest resistance at 163.984 acts as a barrier to any upside correction, while the nearest support at 156.672 is the primary downside target. A break below this support would open the door for further declines, but until then, the bearish momentum is expected to persist.
Catalysts
- ▼ Trendline Break Down and Bull Pennant breakdown provide strong chart pattern confluence.
- ▼ Multiple momentum indicators (STOCHF, BOP) confirm selling pressure.
- ▼ EMA 50 and SMA 50 retreats align with the bearish trend.
- ▼ Fibonacci retracement at 50% offers a logical entry level within the downtrend.
Risk Factors
- ▲ A close above the nearest resistance at 163.984 would invalidate the bearish signal.
- ▲ Lower timeframes (15m to 2H) show weak trend strength, suggesting possible consolidation or a short-term bounce.
- ▲ If the price fails to break below support, the bearish momentum could fade, leading to a range-bound market.
- ▲ Any unexpected bullish news or shift in market sentiment could trigger a reversal.
Symbol
USD/JPY
Timeframe
8H
Direction
SELL
Probability
76%
Strength
STRONG
Date
2026-08-18 08:00
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 163.98400 | 2026-07-23 |
| S1 | 156.67200 | 2026-08-07 |
| S2 | 155.22400 | 2026-08-03 |
| S3 | 155.03600 | 2026-05-06 |
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