AUD/JPY – 1H – BUY
BUY
78%
▲ Bullish 78% (40.99)
▼ Bearish 22% (11.47)
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Signal evolution
Events for AUD/JPY
Full calendar- TodayJPYExports YoY (Jul)●●○Previous 19.3in 3h
- TodayJPYBalance of Trade (Jul)●●○Previous -406.9in 3h
- TomorrowAUDFull Time Employment Chg (Jul)●●○Previous 29.3in 5h
All times UTC.
Signals Fired
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ | Rising Wedge | chart_pattern | 3.69 |
| ▲ | Trendline Break Up | trendline | 3.02 |
| ▲ | Fibonacci Break UpTrend (24%) | fibonacci | 2.94 |
| ▼ | Double Top | chart_pattern | 2.71 |
| ▲ | STOCH OS Exit | indicator | 2.44 |
| ▼ | Trendline Break Down | trendline | 1.99 |
| ▲ | BOP Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.96 |
| ▲ | SMA 200 Retreat Up | indicator | 1.64 |
| ▲ | Support Level Retreat Up | sr | 1.51 |
| ▲ | Hammer | candlestick | 1.29 |
| ▲ | Bullish Harami | candlestick | 1.20 |
Trend Context
15MDOWNVery strong trend
30MDOWNVery strong trend
1HDOWNVery strong trend
2HDOWNTrend forming
4HDOWNTrend forming
8HDOWNChoppy / sideways
12HUPTrend forming
1DDOWNTrend forming
Analysis
🎯 Key Takeaways
- Bullish 1H signal fires against a strong bearish trend on lower timeframes, suggesting a potential bounce rather than a reversal.
- Multiple patterns (Trendline Break Up, Double Top, Rising Wedge) align to indicate a bullish breakout attempt.
- Key resistance at 113.60600 must be broken to confirm; support at 112.41900 is the invalidation level.
- Higher timeframes remain bearish, so treat this as a counter-trend trade with defined risk.
The AUD/JPY 1H signal fires a bullish BUY despite a predominantly bearish trend across most timeframes. The signal combines multiple pattern breaks—Trendline Break Up and Trendline Break Down, alongside a Double Top and Rising Wedge—which, together with the STOCH OS Exit and BOP Zero Cross Up, suggest a potential reversal or counter-trend bounce. The SMA 200 Retreat Up and Fibonacci Break UpTrend add confluence, indicating that the pullback may be losing steam and buyers are stepping in near support.
However, the overall trend remains bearish, with very strong downtrends on the 15m, 30m, and 1h timeframes. This creates a conflicting picture: the 1H signal is bullish, but the higher timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H, 1D) are bearish, and only the 12H shows a bullish trend forming. The nearest resistance at 113.60600 is a critical level; a failure to break above it would invalidate the bullish case. Conversely, a break below the nearest support at 112.41900 would signal that the bearish trend has resumed. Traders should treat this as a counter-trend opportunity with limited upside potential, watching for confirmation from price action and momentum.
However, the overall trend remains bearish, with very strong downtrends on the 15m, 30m, and 1h timeframes. This creates a conflicting picture: the 1H signal is bullish, but the higher timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H, 1D) are bearish, and only the 12H shows a bullish trend forming. The nearest resistance at 113.60600 is a critical level; a failure to break above it would invalidate the bullish case. Conversely, a break below the nearest support at 112.41900 would signal that the bearish trend has resumed. Traders should treat this as a counter-trend opportunity with limited upside potential, watching for confirmation from price action and momentum.
Catalysts
- ▲ Confluence of multiple signal types: trendline breaks, chart patterns (Double Top, Rising Wedge), and indicator signals (STOCH OS Exit, BOP Zero Cross Up).
- ▲ SMA 200 Retreat Up and Fibonacci Break UpTrend suggest buyers are defending the trendline and fib level.
- ▲ Probability of 69% and moderate strength indicate a reasonable edge for the bullish move.
- ▲ Nearest support at 112.41900 is holding, providing a base for the bounce.
Risk Factors
- ▼ The strong bearish trend on 15m, 30m, and 1H timeframes could overpower the bullish signal, leading to a failed breakout.
- ▼ Resistance at 113.60600 is nearby and may cap upside; failure to break it would invalidate the bullish case.
- ▼ Higher timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H, 1D) are bearish, suggesting the overall trend is down and the bounce may be temporary.
- ▼ Momentum indicators like STOCH and BOP could fade quickly if the broader downtrend resumes.
Symbol
AUD/JPY
Timeframe
1H
Direction
BUY
Probability
78%
Strength
STRONG
Date
2026-08-19 09:00
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 113.60600 | 2026-08-18 |
| S1 | 112.41900 | 2026-08-14 |
| S2 | 112.20800 | 2026-08-13 |
| S3 | 112.13400 | 2026-08-12 |
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