EUR/USD – 2H – SELL
SELL
70%
▲ Bullish 30% (8.84)
▼ Bearish 70% (20.60)
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Signal evolution
Events for EUR/USD
Full calendar- TodayEURInflation Rate YoY (Jul)●●●Forecast 2.9%Previous 2.8%in 6h
- TodayEURInflation Rate MoM (Jul)●●●Forecast 0.2%Previous -0.1%in 6h
- TodayEURCore Inflation Rate YoY (Jul)●●●Forecast 2.5%Previous 2.4%in 6h
All times UTC.
Signals Fired
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ | DX Trend Strong | indicator | 1.72 |
| ▼ | STOCHF KD Cross Down | indicator | 1.60 |
| ▼ | BOP Zero Cross Down | indicator | 1.51 |
| ▼ | MA Retreat Down | indicator | 1.50 |
| ▼ | MIDPOINT Retreat Down | indicator | 1.48 |
| ▼ | HT TRENDLINE Retreat Down | indicator | 1.45 |
| ▲ | AROON Cross Up | indicator | 1.44 |
| ▲ | AROONOSC Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.44 |
| ▼ | MIDPRICE Retreat Down | indicator | 1.44 |
| ▼ | CMO Zero Cross Down | indicator | 1.42 |
| ▼ | RSI Midline Cross Down | indicator | 1.42 |
| ▼ | DEMA Retreat Down | indicator | 1.42 |
| ▲ | MOM Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.41 |
| ▲ | ROC Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.41 |
| ▲ | ROCR Cross Up | indicator | 1.41 |
| ▼ | MAMA PRICE Retreat Down | indicator | 1.38 |
| ▼ | Fibonacci Retreat DownTrend (79%) | fibonacci | 1.35 |
| ▼ | Bearish Harami | candlestick | 1.08 |
| ▼ | Shooting Star | candlestick | 1.08 |
Trend Context
15MUPChoppy / sideways
30MUPChoppy / sideways
1HUPChoppy / sideways
2HUPSolid trend
4HUPSolid trend
8HUPSolid trend
12HUPSolid trend
1DUPSolid trend
Analysis
🎯 Key Takeaways
- The SELL signal is a short-term counter-trend move against a broader bullish trend.
- Momentum indicators (BOP, CMO, MOM, ROC) have turned bearish, but AROON shows bullish crossovers, adding confusion.
- Watch the support at 1.15114; a break below it would confirm the bearish case, while a bounce could invalidate it.
- The higher timeframes (2H to 1D) are all bullish, so this sell signal may be a pullback opportunity rather than a reversal.
The EUR/USD 2H signal is a SELL with 70% probability, driven by a cluster of momentum and trend indicators that have crossed to the downside, including BOP Zero Cross Down, CMO Zero Cross Down, and DX Trend Strong. However, the broader timeframes remain bullish, with solid trends on the 2H through 1D timeframes. This creates a divergence: the immediate momentum is turning bearish within a larger uptrend. The AROON Cross Up and AROONOSC Zero Cross Up suggest short-term bullish momentum, which conflicts with the bearish signals, indicating the market may be in a consolidation or correction phase rather than a reversal.
Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 1.16137 and support at 1.15114. A break below support would confirm the bearish signal and could lead to further downside, while a hold above support might indicate the pullback is shallow. The alignment across timeframes is not fully bearish; only the 2H and below show any bearish tendency, and even then, the 15m to 1h are bullish but choppy. This mixed picture suggests the SELL signal may be a counter-trend opportunity, which carries higher risk. Traders should monitor whether price respects the support level and whether momentum indicators continue to weaken.
Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 1.16137 and support at 1.15114. A break below support would confirm the bearish signal and could lead to further downside, while a hold above support might indicate the pullback is shallow. The alignment across timeframes is not fully bearish; only the 2H and below show any bearish tendency, and even then, the 15m to 1h are bullish but choppy. This mixed picture suggests the SELL signal may be a counter-trend opportunity, which carries higher risk. Traders should monitor whether price respects the support level and whether momentum indicators continue to weaken.
Catalysts
- ▼ Multiple momentum indicators (BOP, CMO, MOM, ROC) have crossed below zero, signaling bearish pressure.
- ▼ DX Trend Strong indicates a strong trend, which could amplify the move if the bearish momentum persists.
- ▼ The presence of Fibonacci and candlestick patterns suggests confluence at key levels, potentially supporting a move lower.
- ▼ The signal fires on the 2H timeframe, which is a solid trend timeframe, giving it some validity.
Risk Factors
- ▲ The bullish trend across all higher timeframes (2H to 1D) contradicts the bearish signal, increasing the chance of a false breakdown.
- ▲ Aroon indicators are bullish (Cross Up and OSC Zero Cross Up), which could indicate that the bearish momentum is not strong enough to overcome the prevailing uptrend.
- ▲ The nearest support at 1.15114 is only about 100 pips away; a quick bounce from there could invalidate the sell signal.
- ▲ The 15m to 1h timeframes are bullish but choppy, suggesting that the market may be indecisive, and the sell signal could be a whipsaw.
Symbol
EUR/USD
Timeframe
2H
Direction
SELL
Probability
70%
Strength
MODERATE
Date
2026-08-19 02:00
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 1.16137 | 2026-08-17 |
| S1 | 1.15114 | 2026-08-13 |
| S2 | 1.14999 | 2026-08-03 |
| S3 | 1.14548 | 2026-07-31 |
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