USD/JPY – 1H – SELL

2026-08-19 02:00 UTC · 13 hours ago

SELL

100%

▼ SELL

VERY STRONG

Intraday

Prognose: 61% historisch

⚡ Confluence +5%

▲ Bullish 0% (0.00) ▼ Bearish 100% (27.17)

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Signal evolution

Events for USD/JPY

Full calendar

14:30TodayUSDEIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Aug/14)●●○in 47m
14:30TodayUSDEIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Aug/14)●●●in 47m
18:00TodayUSDFOMC Minutes●●●in 4h

All times UTC.

Signals Fired

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	Fibonacci Break UpTrend (24%)	fibonacci	2.07
▼	Trendline Break Down	trendline	1.61
▼	Trendline Retreat Down	trendline	1.46
▼	Resistance Level Retreat Down	sr	1.42
▼	HT TRENDLINE Retreat Down	indicator	1.36
▼	MIDPOINT Retreat Down	indicator	1.35
▼	CMO Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.31
▼	RSI Midline Cross Down	indicator	1.31
▼	DEMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.20
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	0.99
▼	Bearish Engulfing	candlestick	0.65

Trend Context

15M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

30M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

12H

DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bearish alignment across all timeframes, with higher timeframes in solid downtrends.
Multiple technical signals (trendline breaks, indicator crosses, retreats) all point to continued selling.
Watch for a break below 158.84000 support to confirm further downside; a move above 159.77400 would negate the signal.
Lower timeframes are choppy, so expect possible short-term volatility or false moves.

The USD/JPY 1H signal is overwhelmingly bearish, with a 91% probability and very strong strength. A confluence of signals has fired: a Trendline Retreat Down and Break Down, BOP and CMO Zero Cross Downs, an RSI Midline Cross Down, and DEMA Retreat Down, among others. These are reinforced by higher-timeframe trendline and midpoint retreats, indicating that the bearish pressure is not just a short-term blip but part of a broader downtrend. The trend across all timeframes is bearish, with the 4H showing a forming trend and the 8H, 12H, and 1D showing solid trends, confirming that the selling momentum is aligned across multiple horizons.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 159.77400 and support at 158.84000. A break below support could open the door to further downside, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the bearish setup. The signal's strength and the alignment across timeframes suggest that the path of least resistance is lower, but traders should be cautious of the choppy/sideways nature in the lower timeframes, which could lead to false breakouts or whipsaws.

Catalysts

▼ Confluence of signals: trendline breaks, indicator crosses, and retreats all aligning bearish.
▼ Higher timeframes (8H, 12H, 1D) show solid downtrends, supporting the 1H signal.
▼ RSI midline cross down and CMO zero cross down indicate momentum shifting to the downside.
▼ Strong trend scores on higher timeframes (3/5) suggest the bearish trend is well established.

Risk Factors

▲ Lower timeframes (15m-2h) are choppy/sideways, which could lead to false signals or range-bound trading.
▲ A break above the nearest resistance at 159.77400 would invalidate the bearish setup.
▲ The RSI is already low, so there is a risk of oversold conditions and a short-term bounce.
▲ If the price holds above support and forms a higher low, the bearish momentum could fade.