USD/JPY – 8H – SELL

SELL 2× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-09-03 08:00 UTC 19 days ago

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 2× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 2× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (3 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC, updated 2× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	MAMA PRICE Retreat Down	indicator	2.52
▼	ALMA Break Down	indicator	2.40
▼	DEMA Retreat Down	indicator	2.34
▼	EMA Retreat Down	indicator	2.34
▼	KAMA Retreat Down	indicator	2.25
▼	Fibonacci Break DownTrend (24%)continuation	fibonacci	2.11
▼	MIDPRICE Break Down	indicator	2.06
▼	MIDPOINT Break Down	indicator	2.03
▼	MA Retreat Down	indicator	1.93
▼	HT TRENDLINE Retreat Down	indicator	1.62
▼	AO Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.55
▲	HT TRENDMODE Mode to Trend	indicator	1.54
▲	ADX Trend Strong	indicator	1.33
▼	SQUEEZE Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.29
▲	STC OS Entry	indicator	1.29
▲	HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Up	indicator	1.26
▼	Trendline Retreat Downcontinuation	trendline	1.17
▼	Long Line Bearish	candlestick	1.03
▲	RSX OS Entry	indicator	0.99

Trend Context

15M

DOWNVery strong trend

30M

DOWNExtremely strong trend

DOWNVery strong trend

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

12H

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bearish confluence across multiple indicators and timeframes points to a high-probability sell setup.
Key resistance at 159.77400 must hold for the bearish thesis to remain valid.
Primary downside target is support at 155.22400, with a break below potentially accelerating the decline.
The 8H and 12H trends are still forming, so the move may be early but is supported by lower timeframe momentum.

The USD/JPY 8H signal is heavily bearish, with a 90% probability and very strong strength, driven by a convergence of trendline, moving average, and momentum indicators all pointing lower. The signal set includes Trendline Retreat Down, ADR Strong, and multiple moving average retreats (DEMA, EMA, KAMA, MA, MAMA PRICE), indicating that price has pulled back to a downward-sloping trendline or moving average and is now resuming the downtrend. This is reinforced by a strong ADX reading, confirming that the prevailing downtrend has solid momentum behind it.

Across timeframes, the bearish alignment is impressive: the 15m through 2h charts all show very strong or extremely strong bearish trends, while the 4h and 1d are solidly bearish. The 8H and 12H are only 'trend forming' but still bearish, which suggests the larger picture is turning lower. The nearest resistance at 159.77400 is a key level to watch; a break above it would invalidate the immediate bearish setup. The nearest support at 155.22400 is the primary downside target, and a break below that could open the door to further declines. Overall, the confluence of signals and timeframe alignment strongly supports a bearish continuation, but traders should remain vigilant for any signs of reversal.

Catalysts

▼ Trend alignment across all timeframes, with the strongest bearish momentum in the 30m to 2h range.
▼ Multiple moving average retreats (DEMA, EMA, KAMA, MA, MAMA PRICE) all firing simultaneously, confirming the pullback is over.
▼ Strong ADX reading indicates the downtrend is well-established and not just a short-term wobble.
▼ Trendline retreats on both the main timeframe and higher timeframe (HT TRENDLINE) add confluence.

Risk Factors

▲ A break above the nearest resistance at 159.77400 would invalidate the bearish signal and could trigger a short squeeze.
▲ The 8H and 12H trends are still 'forming', meaning the larger timeframe is not yet fully committed to the downtrend.
▲ Momentum could fade if price stalls near support, leading to a consolidation or reversal.
▲ Watch for any bullish candlestick patterns or RSI divergence on lower timeframes that could signal a bounce.