AUD/JPY – 12H – SELL
SELL
81%
▲ Bullish 19% (6.68)
▼ Bearish 81% (28.33)
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Signal evolution
Signals Fired
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ | Trendline Break Down | trendline | 2.68 |
| ▼ | ALMA Retreat Down | indicator | 1.91 |
| ▼ | SMA 50 Retreat Down | indicator | 1.90 |
| ▼ | BOP Zero Cross Down | indicator | 1.67 |
| ▼ | Fibonacci Retreat DownTrend (62%) | fibonacci | 1.67 |
| ▼ | MAMA PRICE Retreat Down | indicator | 1.55 |
| ▼ | APO Zero Cross Down | indicator | 1.47 |
| ▲ | BBANDS LOWER Retreat Up | indicator | 1.10 |
| ▲ | Northern Doji | candlestick | 1.05 |
| ▼ | Hanging Man | candlestick | 0.94 |
Trend Context
15MUPChoppy / sideways
30MDOWNChoppy / sideways
1HDOWNTrend forming
2HDOWNVery strong trend
4HDOWNVery strong trend
8HDOWNSolid trend
12HDOWNTrend forming
1DDOWNChoppy / sideways
Analysis
🎯 Key Takeaways
- Bearish trendline break and momentum zero-crosses align for a sell bias on AUD/JPY.
- Strong bearish trends on 2H and 4H confirm the 12H signal direction.
- Watch nearest support at 109.231 as the primary downside target zone.
- A move above 114.956 resistance would negate the bearish setup.
The AUD/JPY 12H chart has fired a dense cluster of bearish signals, led by a Trendline Break Down and reinforced by APO and BOP zero-cross downs. Momentum is firmly negative, with the SMA 50, ALMA, and MAMA price all retreating downward, while Fibonacci retracement levels also point to a downtrend. The Bollinger Bands Lower Retreat Up signal suggests price bounced off the lower band, but the overall structure remains bearish, with sellers defending overhead supply.
Across timeframes, the bearish bias is consistent from 30m through 8H, with very strong trends on 2H and 4H, and a solid trend on 8H. The 12H is still trend-forming, and the 1D is choppy, which caps conviction. Price is trading between nearest resistance at 114.956 and support at 109.231, with the bias favoring a move lower toward support. A break below support would extend the sell-off, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the bearish setup.
Across timeframes, the bearish bias is consistent from 30m through 8H, with very strong trends on 2H and 4H, and a solid trend on 8H. The 12H is still trend-forming, and the 1D is choppy, which caps conviction. Price is trading between nearest resistance at 114.956 and support at 109.231, with the bias favoring a move lower toward support. A break below support would extend the sell-off, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the bearish setup.
Catalysts
- ▼ Multiple indicators (APO, BOP, SMA 50, ALMA, MAMA) all point lower, creating strong confluence.
- ▼ Trendline Break Down adds a structural element to the momentum signals.
- ▼ Fibonacci retracement levels align with the downtrend, suggesting price is respecting bearish levels.
- ▼ Higher timeframes (2H, 4H) show very strong bearish trends, supporting the 12H signal.
Risk Factors
- ▲ The 15m timeframe is bullish and choppy, which could trigger a short-term bounce against the sell signal.
- ▲ The 1D timeframe is choppy/sideways, indicating a lack of clear daily trend and potential range-bound behavior.
- ▲ If price reclaims resistance at 114.956, the bearish thesis is invalidated and a reversal could unfold.
- ▲ The 12H trend is only 'forming' (2/5), so momentum could fade before reaching support.
Symbol
AUD/JPY
Timeframe
12H
Direction
SELL
Probability
81%
Strength
STRONG
Date
2026-09-04 12:00
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 114.95600 | 2026-08-28 |
| S1 | 109.23100 | 2026-08-03 |
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