USD/JPY – 30M – BUY
BUY
96%
▲ Bullish 96% (47.08)
▼ Bearish 4% (1.77)
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Signal evolution
Signals Fired
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ | CCI OS Exit | indicator | 1.91 |
| ▲ | STOCHRSI KD Cross Up | indicator | 1.83 |
| ▼ | Fibonacci Break DownTrend (24%) | fibonacci | 1.76 |
| ▼ | HT SINE Zero Cross Down | indicator | 1.73 |
| ▲ | BOP Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.70 |
| ▲ | KDJ Cross Up | indicator | 1.66 |
| ▲ | TTM TREND Trend Up | indicator | 1.42 |
| ▼ | ER Level Cross Down | indicator | 1.42 |
| ▲ | Belt Hold Bullish | candlestick | 1.28 |
| ▲ | Support Level Retreat Up | sr | 1.00 |
| ▲ | BBANDS LOWER Retreat Up | indicator | 0.92 |
Trend Context
15MDOWNTrend forming
30MDOWNSolid trend
1HDOWNSolid trend
2HDOWNVery strong trend
4HDOWNExtremely strong trend
8HDOWNSolid trend
12HDOWNSolid trend
1DDOWNVery strong trend
Analysis
🎯 Key Takeaways
- Short-term BUY signal with 75% probability, but only against a strong bearish trend across 30m to 1d.
- Momentum is exhausted on the lower timeframe — oversold and ready for a technical bounce.
- First upside target: resistance at 154.390. Invalidation: break below support 153.250.
- Treat this as a counter-trend bounce, not a shift in the broader downtrend.
The USD/JPY 30-minute signal fires a BUY while the broader trend across timeframes remains bearish, creating a counter-trend setup. The indicator cluster is strongly bullish at the short-term level: BOP Zero Cross Up signals buying pressure, CCI OS Exit and STOCHRSI KD Cross Up confirm oversold momentum turning, while KDJ Cross Up and TTM Trend Up add confluence. BBANDS Lower Retreat and HT SINE Zero Cross Down suggest the immediate downside is exhausted. The signal groups (sr, candlestick, indicator, fibonacci) indicate a rare convergence of pattern and momentum, supporting a short-term bounce toward the nearest resistance at 154.390.
However, the higher-timeframe alignment is firmly bearish — the 4h and 1d trends score 5/5 and 4/5 respectively — meaning this bounce is likely corrective rather than a reversal. The nearest support at 153.251 is the key invalidation level; a decisive break below would nullify the long setup and confirm the predominant downtrend. Resistance at 154.390 should cap any upside, and traders should treat this as a scalp-long against the trend, not a direction change.
However, the higher-timeframe alignment is firmly bearish — the 4h and 1d trends score 5/5 and 4/5 respectively — meaning this bounce is likely corrective rather than a reversal. The nearest support at 153.251 is the key invalidation level; a decisive break below would nullify the long setup and confirm the predominant downtrend. Resistance at 154.390 should cap any upside, and traders should treat this as a scalp-long against the trend, not a direction change.
Catalysts
- ▲ Multiple oversold momentum indicators coincide (STOCHRSI, KDLE, TTM) — strong short-term reversal set up.
- ▲ BOP and Balance of Power turning up — buying pressure just restrengthening.
- ▲ BBANDS Lower Retreat and HTDC upward confirm support is holding for now.
- ▲ No conflicting signals; the trend scores are weakest on the 15m and 30m, just where the bullish signal fires.
Risk Factors
- ▼ Higher timeframes all overwhelmingly bearish (4h=5/5, 1d=4/5) — any bounce is likely to be capped and reversed.
- ▼ The 154.390 resistance is directly above; it provides a clear ceiling for the counter-trend move.
- ▼ If the 153.250 support gives way on this 30m bounce, the invalidation level is broken and a sharper selloff may result.
- ▼ Momentum indices are already oversold but trend-following filters on the 1h and higher remain bearish, so bounce depth may be limited.
Symbol
USD/JPY
Timeframe
30M
Direction
BUY
Probability
96%
Strength
VERY STRONG
Date
2026-09-09 09:30
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 154.39000 | 2026-09-08 |
| R2 | 154.41500 | 2026-09-08 |
| R3 | 156.28000 | 2026-09-04 |
| S1 | 153.25100 | 2026-09-09 |
| S2 | 152.88300 | 2026-09-08 |
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