AUD/JPY – 30M – SELL
SELL
69%
▲ Bullish 31% (7.11)
▼ Bearish 69% (15.78)
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Signal evolution
Conviction, candle by candle
conviction per candle
10× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads
Dropped below 35% 10× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.
Signals Fired
These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (16 Sep 2026, 11:30 UTC, updated 10× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ | Trendline Break Downbreak + retest | trendline | 2.57 |
| ▼ | MA Break Down | indicator | 2.42 |
| ▼ | ALMA Break Down | indicator | 2.04 |
| ▼ | HMA Break Down | indicator | 1.98 |
| ▲ | FISHER Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.91 |
| ▼ | HT TRENDLINE Break Down | indicator | 1.83 |
| ▲ | STOCH OB Exit | indicator | 1.75 |
| ▼ | DEMA Break Down | indicator | 1.69 |
| ▲ | QSTICK Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.55 |
| ▼ | CMO Zero Cross Down | indicator | 1.51 |
| ▼ | RSI Midline Cross Down | indicator | 1.51 |
| ▼ | TSI Zero Cross Down | indicator | 1.50 |
| ▲ | MOM Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.46 |
| ▲ | ROC Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.46 |
| ▲ | ROCR Cross Up | indicator | 1.46 |
| ▼ | KELTNER MID Cross Down | indicator | 1.36 |
| ▼ | TTM TREND Trend Down | indicator | 1.21 |
| ▲ | Inverted Hammer | candlestick | 0.97 |
| ▼ | HMA Direction Down | indicator | 0.89 |
Trend Context
15MUPTrend forming
30MUPChoppy / sideways
1HDOWNChoppy / sideways
2HUPChoppy / sideways
4HDOWNSolid trend
8HDOWNVery strong trend
12HDOWNVery strong trend
1DDOWNSolid trend
Analysis
🎯 Key Takeaways
- The 30m sell signal aligns with the dominant bearish trend on 4h, 8h, and 12h charts, suggesting a continuation move lower.
- The cluster of momentum indicators (RSI, CMO, MOM, ROC) all crossing down confirms a loss of short-term bullish momentum.
- Watch the 110.48800 support level as the immediate downside target; a break below it would strengthen the bearish case.
- The weak bullish labels on lower timeframes (15m, 30m) indicate the uptrend was fragile and is now being rejected.
- The 110.79300 resistance level is the key invalidation point; a move back above it would negate the sell signal.
The 30-minute AUD/JPY sell signal is firing against a backdrop of conflicting shorter-term momentum but aligns with a dominant bearish structure on the higher timeframes. The break of the trendline, combined with a cluster of momentum oscillators (CMO, MOM, ROC, ROCR, RSI) crossing down, and a DEMA breakdown, points to a loss of upside traction on the intraday chart. The STOCH exit from overbought territory and the additional 11 signals reinforce the shift in short-term sentiment. While the 15m and 30m trends are still labeled bullish, their weak scores (2/5 and 1/5) indicate a fragile, choppy uptrend that is now being rejected, likely setting up a mean-reversion move lower within the larger bearish context.
From a multi-timeframe perspective, the signal is strongest when viewed through the lens of the 8h, 12h, and 4h charts, which all show solid to very strong bearish trends. This suggests the current 30m sell-off is likely a continuation of the broader downtrend rather than a standalone reversal. The key levels to monitor are the nearest support at 110.48800, which acts as the immediate downside target, and the resistance at 110.79300, which now serves as a critical pivot. A sustained move below support would confirm the bearish breakout, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the short-term bearish thesis.
From a multi-timeframe perspective, the signal is strongest when viewed through the lens of the 8h, 12h, and 4h charts, which all show solid to very strong bearish trends. This suggests the current 30m sell-off is likely a continuation of the broader downtrend rather than a standalone reversal. The key levels to monitor are the nearest support at 110.48800, which acts as the immediate downside target, and the resistance at 110.79300, which now serves as a critical pivot. A sustained move below support would confirm the bearish breakout, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the short-term bearish thesis.
Catalysts
- ▼ Higher timeframe alignment: 4h, 8h, and 12h trends are all bearish, providing a strong tailwind for the 30m sell signal.
- ▼ Multiple signal groups (trendline, candlestick, indicator) converging on the same direction increases the probability of a move.
- ▼ The DEMA breakdown and trendline break add technical confluence, confirming a shift in the short-term structure.
- ▼ The STOCH exiting overbought territory indicates that the recent upward push has exhausted its momentum.
Risk Factors
- ▲ The lower timeframes (15m, 30m) are still labeled bullish, which could lead to a short-term bounce against the sell signal.
- ▲ The nearest support at 110.48800 is relatively close; a shallow move could see the signal play out quickly but with limited follow-through.
- ▲ If the price reclaims the 110.79300 resistance, it would invalidate the bearish setup and suggest the short-term uptrend is resuming.
- ▲ Momentum on the 1h and 2h charts is choppy/sideways, which could lead to a range-bound market rather than a strong directional move.
Symbol
AUD/JPY
Timeframe
30M
Direction
SELL
Probability
69%
Strength
MODERATE
Date
2026-09-16 14:00
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 110.79300 | 2026-09-16 |
| S1 | 110.48800 | 2026-09-16 |
| S2 | 110.06800 | 2026-09-15 |
| S3 | 110.01200 | 2026-09-14 |