AUD/JPY 30M SELL

· 18 hours ago
SELL
69%
▼ SELL
MODERATE
Scalping
5 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit
45.9% of closed signals in this class ended above zero
model score 68.9 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability
⚡ Confluence +4%
▲ Bullish 31% (7.11) ▼ Bearish 69% (15.78)
AUD/JPY  ·  30M
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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

100 50 0 entry now · 21 × 30m 8%
conviction per candle 10× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 10× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (16 Sep 2026, 11:30 UTC, updated 10× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

Signals Fired Category Weight
Trendline Break Downbreak + retest trendline 2.57
MA Break Down indicator 2.42
ALMA Break Down indicator 2.04
HMA Break Down indicator 1.98
FISHER Zero Cross Up indicator 1.91
HT TRENDLINE Break Down indicator 1.83
STOCH OB Exit indicator 1.75
DEMA Break Down indicator 1.69
QSTICK Zero Cross Up indicator 1.55
CMO Zero Cross Down indicator 1.51
RSI Midline Cross Down indicator 1.51
TSI Zero Cross Down indicator 1.50
MOM Zero Cross Up indicator 1.46
ROC Zero Cross Up indicator 1.46
ROCR Cross Up indicator 1.46
KELTNER MID Cross Down indicator 1.36
TTM TREND Trend Down indicator 1.21
Inverted Hammer candlestick 0.97
HMA Direction Down indicator 0.89

Trend Context

15M
UPTrend forming
30M
UPChoppy / sideways
1H
DOWNChoppy / sideways
2H
UPChoppy / sideways
4H
DOWNSolid trend
8H
DOWNVery strong trend
12H
DOWNVery strong trend
1D
DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways
  • The 30m sell signal aligns with the dominant bearish trend on 4h, 8h, and 12h charts, suggesting a continuation move lower.
  • The cluster of momentum indicators (RSI, CMO, MOM, ROC) all crossing down confirms a loss of short-term bullish momentum.
  • Watch the 110.48800 support level as the immediate downside target; a break below it would strengthen the bearish case.
  • The weak bullish labels on lower timeframes (15m, 30m) indicate the uptrend was fragile and is now being rejected.
  • The 110.79300 resistance level is the key invalidation point; a move back above it would negate the sell signal.
The 30-minute AUD/JPY sell signal is firing against a backdrop of conflicting shorter-term momentum but aligns with a dominant bearish structure on the higher timeframes. The break of the trendline, combined with a cluster of momentum oscillators (CMO, MOM, ROC, ROCR, RSI) crossing down, and a DEMA breakdown, points to a loss of upside traction on the intraday chart. The STOCH exit from overbought territory and the additional 11 signals reinforce the shift in short-term sentiment. While the 15m and 30m trends are still labeled bullish, their weak scores (2/5 and 1/5) indicate a fragile, choppy uptrend that is now being rejected, likely setting up a mean-reversion move lower within the larger bearish context.

From a multi-timeframe perspective, the signal is strongest when viewed through the lens of the 8h, 12h, and 4h charts, which all show solid to very strong bearish trends. This suggests the current 30m sell-off is likely a continuation of the broader downtrend rather than a standalone reversal. The key levels to monitor are the nearest support at 110.48800, which acts as the immediate downside target, and the resistance at 110.79300, which now serves as a critical pivot. A sustained move below support would confirm the bearish breakout, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the short-term bearish thesis.
Catalysts
  • Higher timeframe alignment: 4h, 8h, and 12h trends are all bearish, providing a strong tailwind for the 30m sell signal.
  • Multiple signal groups (trendline, candlestick, indicator) converging on the same direction increases the probability of a move.
  • The DEMA breakdown and trendline break add technical confluence, confirming a shift in the short-term structure.
  • The STOCH exiting overbought territory indicates that the recent upward push has exhausted its momentum.
Risk Factors
  • The lower timeframes (15m, 30m) are still labeled bullish, which could lead to a short-term bounce against the sell signal.
  • The nearest support at 110.48800 is relatively close; a shallow move could see the signal play out quickly but with limited follow-through.
  • If the price reclaims the 110.79300 resistance, it would invalidate the bearish setup and suggest the short-term uptrend is resuming.
  • Momentum on the 1h and 2h charts is choppy/sideways, which could lead to a range-bound market rather than a strong directional move.
Symbol AUD/JPY
Timeframe 30M
Direction SELL
Probability 69%
Strength MODERATE
Date 2026-09-16 14:00
cat_ Forex Forex

Support & Resistance

Level Price Formed
R1 110.79300 2026-09-16
S1 110.48800 2026-09-16
S2 110.06800 2026-09-15
S3 110.01200 2026-09-14

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