EUR/CHF – 4H – SELL
SELL
89%
▲ Bullish 11% (2.77)
▼ Bearish 89% (22.53)
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Signal evolution
Conviction, candle by candle
conviction per candle
3× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads
Dropped below 35% 3× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.
Signals Fired
These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened
(16 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTC, updated 1× since).
They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by
candle on this page until it closes.
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ | HMA Retreat Down | indicator | 1.59 |
| ▼ | HMA Direction Down | indicator | 1.12 |
| ▲ | Inverted Hammer | candlestick | 1.12 |
| ▼ | DEMA Retreat Down | indicator | 1.00 |
| ▼ | TTM TREND Trend Down | indicator | 0.89 |
Trend Context
15MDOWNTrend forming
30MDOWNChoppy / sideways
1HDOWNChoppy / sideways
2HDOWNChoppy / sideways
4HDOWNChoppy / sideways
8HUPTrend forming
12HUPTrend forming
1DUPTrend forming
Analysis
The EUR/CHF 4H chart is flashing a confluence of bearish signals, with five distinct triggers aligning to suggest downward momentum is building. The DEMA Retreat Down and HMA Retreat Down indicate that both exponential and Hull moving averages are pulling back from recent highs, while the HMA Direction Down confirms the short-term trend has flipped bearish. The TTM TREND indicator has also switched to a down state, and the appearance of an Inverted Hammer candlestick pattern at current levels adds a bearish reversal element. Together, these signals point to a sell setup with strong conviction, though the broader picture shows a tug-of-war: lower timeframes (15m through 4H) are bearish but choppy, while higher timeframes (8H through 1D) remain bullish and trend forming. This divergence suggests the current bearish move may be a corrective pullback within a larger uptrend, but the 4H signal is the operative timeframe for this trade.
Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 0.94740 and support at 0.93969. A break below support would confirm the bearish momentum and open the path for further downside, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the setup. The choppiness on the 30m through 4H timeframes (all with trend scores of 1/5) suggests the move may not be smooth, but the 85% probability and very strong strength rating indicate the signals are firing in unison. Traders should treat this as a high-conviction short with clear invalidation above resistance, while remaining mindful that the higher-timeframe bullish bias could limit the downside.
Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 0.94740 and support at 0.93969. A break below support would confirm the bearish momentum and open the path for further downside, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the setup. The choppiness on the 30m through 4H timeframes (all with trend scores of 1/5) suggests the move may not be smooth, but the 85% probability and very strong strength rating indicate the signals are firing in unison. Traders should treat this as a high-conviction short with clear invalidation above resistance, while remaining mindful that the higher-timeframe bullish bias could limit the downside.
Symbol
EUR/CHF
Timeframe
4H
Direction
SELL
Probability
89%
Strength
VERY STRONG
Date
2026-09-16 08:00
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 0.94740 | 2026-09-14 |
| S1 | 0.93969 | 2026-09-09 |
| S2 | 0.93722 | 2026-09-04 |
| S3 | 0.93506 | 2026-08-31 |