EUR/JPY – 2H – SELL

SELL 2× UPDATED

2026-09-18 14:00 UTC 18 hours ago

61.0 % ↑ +1.7 zur Vorkerze

VERY STRONG ⚡ Confluence +5% Intraday

▲ Bullish 0 % (0.00) ▼ Bearish 100 % (24.52)

6 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit

55.4% of closed signals in this class ended above zero

model score 100.0 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the figure above is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Überzeugung · 3 Kerzen

⚠ Opened against the trend in 6 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 12.3 % vs 17.9 % average · stopped out 14.4 % vs 9.2 % (Forex, 146 closed runs). Not a reason to act — a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 50% — below this the other side leads

Holding up. Conviction has not dropped below the halfway mark since entry.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (18 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC, updated 2× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	WILLR OB Exit	indicator	1.96
▲	STOCH OB Exit	indicator	1.77
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.77
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.63
▼	SMA 200 Retreat Down	indicator	1.42
▼	KDJ Cross Down	indicator	1.05

Trend Context

15M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

30M

UPTrend forming

UPSolid trend

UPTrend forming

UPSolid trend

12H

UPVery strong trend

DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Multiple overbought and momentum indicators on the 2H chart suggest a short-term bearish pullback.
The broader trend is bullish on most timeframes, so the SELL signal is likely a correction within an uptrend.
Key levels: resistance at 181.95300 and support at 178.46700.
Weak signal strength (61% probability) implies limited downside conviction.

The 2H chart for EUR/JPY has fired a cluster of SELL signals, including STOCH OB Exit, WILLR OB Exit, SMA 200 Retreat Down, ER Level Cross Down, KDJ Cross Down, and HMA Retreat Down. These indicators collectively suggest that the recent upward momentum is stalling and that the pair is likely to retrace from overbought conditions. The signals are consistent with a short-term bearish correction within a broader bullish trend, as the higher timeframes (30m to 12h) are predominantly bullish, while the 15m and 1D timeframes show bearish pressure. The nearest resistance at 181.95300 is a key level to watch, as a failure to break above it would confirm the bearish bias, while the nearest support at 178.46700 represents the primary downside target.

The trend alignment across timeframes is mixed, with the 2H and most intraday timeframes bullish, but the 15m and 1D bearish. This suggests that the SELL signal is likely a counter-trend pullback rather than a reversal. The strength of the signal is weak, with a probability of 61%, indicating limited conviction. Traders should monitor the price action around the resistance level and the 15m trend, as a break above resistance or a shift in the 15m trend to bullish would invalidate the bearish setup. The overall bullish trend on higher timeframes means that any downside move may be limited, and the support level at 178.46700 is likely to hold.

Catalysts

▼ Confluence of six bearish indicator signals on the 2H chart.
▼ Overbought conditions indicated by STOCH and WILLR exits.
▼ SMA 200 retreat and ER level cross down add to the bearish case.
▼ Bearish momentum on the 15m and 1D timeframes supports a pullback.

Risk Factors

▲ Higher timeframes (30m to 12h) are bullish, which could limit downside or reverse the pullback.
▲ A break above the nearest resistance at 181.95300 would invalidate the bearish signal.
▲ Weak signal strength and low probability suggest the move may be shallow.
▲ The 2H trend is still bullish, so the SELL is counter-trend and may fade quickly.