ETH/BTC – 4H – SELL

SELL 3× UPDATED

2026-09-19 12:00 UTC 1 day ago

35.9 % ↓ −27.9 zur Vorkerze

WEAK Swing

▲ Bullish 13 % (3.73) ▼ Bearish 87 % (25.99)

5 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit

45.5% of closed signals in this class ended above zero

model score 4.9 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the figure above is the measured frequency (5091 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Überzeugung · 7 Kerzen

⚠ Opened against the trend in 6 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 21.0 % vs 37.3 % average · stopped out 31.9 % vs 20.0 % (Crypto, 520 closed runs). Not a reason to act — a reason to watch.

Loading…

Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 3× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 3× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (19 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC, updated 3× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	CCI OB Exit	indicator	2.38
▼	BBANDS UPPER Retreat Down	indicator	1.40
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.24
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.17
▼	HT SINE Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.13
▼	KDJ Cross Down	indicator	1.12
▼	TTM TREND Trend Down	indicator	1.02
▼	STOCHRSI KD Cross Down	indicator	1.00
▼	Bearish Engulfing	candlestick	0.58

Trend Context

15M

DOWNTrend forming

30M

DOWNTrend forming

UPTrend forming

UPChoppy / sideways

UPTrend forming

12H

UPSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bearish momentum on the 4H, but the longer-term trend is still bullish.
Watch the 0.03287 resistance and 0.03134 support as key levels.
The sell signal is a counter-trend move, so size positions accordingly.
If the 4H trend flips bearish on higher timeframes, the sell signal gains more weight.

The 4H ETH/BTC signal is strongly bearish, with a 77% probability and a cluster of momentum and volatility indicators turning down simultaneously. The BOP Zero Cross Down and CCI OB Exit suggest that buying pressure is fading after an overbought condition, while the STOCHRSI KD Cross Down and KDJ Cross Down confirm short-term momentum is rolling over. The BBANDS UPPER Retreat Down and HT SINE Zero Cross Down indicate price is pulling back from the upper Bollinger Band and a cyclical top may be in place. The ER Level Cross Down and TTM TREND Trend Down add further weight, pointing to a loss of trend efficiency and a shift in the 4H trend.

However, the broader trend context is mixed. While the 15m and 30m timeframes are bearish and forming, the 1H, 2H, 4H, 8H, 12H, and 1D timeframes remain bullish, with the 12H and 1D showing solid trends. This means the sell signal is primarily a short-term counter-trend move within a larger uptrend. The nearest resistance at 0.03287 is a key barrier that could cap any bounce, while the nearest support at 0.03134 is the first downside target. A break below that support would open the door to deeper declines, but as long as the higher timeframes stay bullish, the selloff may be limited.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple indicators (BOP, CCI, STOCHRSI, KDJ, TTM) all aligning to the downside on the 4H.
▼ Price retreating from the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting overbought conditions are unwinding.
▼ Short-term timeframes (15m, 30m) already bearish, providing near-term confirmation.
▼ The ER Level Cross Down and HT SINE Zero Cross Down add confluence for a cyclical top.

Risk Factors

▲ Higher timeframes (12H, 1D) are solidly bullish, which could limit the downside and trigger a reversal.
▲ The 4H trend is still bullish and choppy, so the sell signal may be a false breakdown.
▲ If price reclaims the 0.03287 resistance, the bearish setup is invalidated.
▲ Momentum could fade quickly if the 15m and 30m trends start turning up.