EUR/JPY – 30M – SELL
SELL 7× UPDATED CLOSED
16 hours ago
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Signal evolution
Conviction, candle by candle
conviction per candle
14× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads
Dropped below 35% 14× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.
Signals Fired
These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (20 Sep 2026, 21:30 UTC, updated 7× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ | KDJ OB Exit | indicator | 2.24 |
| ▼ | KAMA Retreat Down | indicator | 2.03 |
| ▼ | MA Retreat Down | indicator | 1.96 |
| ▼ | MIDPRICE Retreat Down | indicator | 1.96 |
| ▼ | EMA Retreat Down | indicator | 1.93 |
| ▼ | DEMA Retreat Down | indicator | 1.87 |
| ▼ | HT TRENDLINE Retreat Down | indicator | 1.87 |
| ▼ | STOCH KD Cross Down | indicator | 1.38 |
| ▼ | BOP Zero Cross Down | indicator | 1.27 |
| ▼ | ER Level Cross Down | indicator | 1.17 |
| ▼ | ERI BULL Zero Cross Down | indicator | 1.11 |
| ▼ | TTM TREND Trend Down | indicator | 0.86 |
| ▼ | Closing Marubozu Bearish | candlestick | 0.71 |
| ▼ | Falling Window | candlestick | 0.50 |
Trend Context
15MDOWNTrend forming
30MDOWNTrend forming
1HDOWNTrend forming
2HUPTrend forming
4HUPTrend forming
8HUPSolid trend
12HUPVery strong trend
1DDOWNSolid trend
Analysis
🎯 Key Takeaways
- Strong bearish confluence on the 30-minute chart, with multiple retreat signals and momentum indicators aligned lower.
- Short-term trend is bearish across 15m, 30m, and 1h, but higher timeframes (2H-12H) are bullish, suggesting a potential pullback within an uptrend.
- Key levels to watch: resistance at 181.545 and support at 179.743; a break below support could accelerate selling, while a move above resistance would negate the bearish case.
- Signal strength is very strong, but the conflicting higher timeframe trends warrant caution and tight risk management.
The EUR/JPY 30-minute chart has triggered a dense cluster of bearish signals, including BOP Zero Cross Down, STOCH KD Cross Down, and multiple retreat signals across DEMA, EMA, KAMA, MA, and MIDPRICE. This confluence suggests that selling pressure is building aggressively on the lower timeframe, with momentum and trend indicators aligning to the downside. The bearish alignment is consistent across the 15-minute, 30-minute, and 1-hour timeframes, reinforcing the short-term downtrend. However, the higher timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H, 12H) remain bullish, indicating that this sell-off may be a corrective pullback within a larger uptrend. The nearest resistance sits at 181.545, while support is at 179.743, providing clear levels to watch for continuation or reversal.
Given the very strong signal strength and the high probability, the immediate bias is bearish, but traders should be cautious of the conflicting higher timeframe trends. The 1-day timeframe is also bearish, which adds some weight to the downside, but the intermediate-term bullishness could limit the depth of the move. A break below the 179.743 support would likely confirm further downside, while a reclaim of the 181.545 resistance would invalidate the bearish setup. Momentum and trend scores are still forming on most timeframes, so the trend is not yet fully established, which could lead to choppy price action.
Given the very strong signal strength and the high probability, the immediate bias is bearish, but traders should be cautious of the conflicting higher timeframe trends. The 1-day timeframe is also bearish, which adds some weight to the downside, but the intermediate-term bullishness could limit the depth of the move. A break below the 179.743 support would likely confirm further downside, while a reclaim of the 181.545 resistance would invalidate the bearish setup. Momentum and trend scores are still forming on most timeframes, so the trend is not yet fully established, which could lead to choppy price action.
Catalysts
- ▼ Multiple retreat signals (DEMA, EMA, KAMA, MA, MIDPRICE) all pointing down, indicating strong bearish momentum.
- ▼ BOP Zero Cross Down and STOCH KD Cross Down confirm selling pressure and momentum shift.
- ▼ Consistent bearish trend across the 15m, 30m, and 1h timeframes, aligning with the signal direction.
- ▼ 1-day timeframe is also bearish, adding a longer-term bearish backdrop.
Risk Factors
- ▲ Higher timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H, 12H) are bullish, which could limit downside or lead to a reversal.
- ▲ Trend scores are still forming (2/5) on most timeframes, indicating the trend is not yet fully established and could be prone to whipsaws.
- ▲ A move above the 181.545 resistance would invalidate the bearish signal and could trigger a short squeeze.
- ▲ Momentum could fade if price stalls near support, especially given the bullish intermediate-term trend.
Symbol
EUR/JPY
Timeframe
30M
Direction
SELL
Conviction
4%
Strength
WEAK
Date
2026-09-21 00:05
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 181.54500 | 2026-09-18 |
| S1 | 179.74300 | 2026-09-18 |
| S2 | 178.93400 | 2026-09-18 |
| S3 | 178.49800 | 2026-09-17 |