AUD/CAD – 1H – SELL

SELL 6× UPDATED CLOSED
17 hours ago
AUD/CAD  ·  1H
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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

100 50 0 entry now · 18 × 1h 86%
conviction per candle 11× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 11× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (28 Sep 2026, 02:00 UTC, updated 6× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

Signals Fired Category Weight
▼ EMA CROSS 20 50 Death Cross indicator 2.77
▲ ER Level Cross Up indicator 2.09
▼ MAMA PRICE Retreat Down indicator 2.02
▼ DEMA Retreat Down indicator 2.01
▼ Trendline Break Downbreak + retest trendline 1.98
▲ BBANDS LOWER Retreat Up indicator 1.98
▼ EMA Retreat Down indicator 1.95
▼ KAMA Retreat Down indicator 1.95
▼ MIDPRICE Retreat Down indicator 1.73
▼ MIDPOINT Retreat Down indicator 1.66
▼ Fibonacci Break DownTrend (24%)break + retest fibonacci 1.62
▼ BOP Zero Cross Down indicator 1.50
▼ KST Zero Cross Down indicator 1.48
▲ HMA Direction Up indicator 1.47
▼ Bearish Harami candlestick 1.19

Trend Context

15M
DOWNSolid trend
30M
DOWNSolid trend
1H
DOWNTrend forming
2H
DOWNTrend forming
4H
DOWNChoppy / sideways
8H
UPChoppy / sideways
12H
UPChoppy / sideways
1D
UPChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways
  • Strong bearish confluence on the 1H timeframe with trendline break, death cross, and multiple MA retreats.
  • Intraday trends (15m, 30m) align bearish, supporting the sell signal.
  • Higher timeframes remain bullish, so this is likely a correction within a larger uptrend.
  • Watch 0.99825 as resistance and 0.98997 as key support for direction.
The AUD/CAD 1H chart has fired a dense cluster of bearish signals, led by a Trendline Break Down and a Death Cross on the 20/50 EMAs, with momentum oscillators (BOP Zero Cross Down) and trend-following MAs (DEMA, EMA, KAMA, MAMA) all retreating lower. This confluence points to a well-established downtrend on the 1H timeframe, and the bearish momentum is confirmed by lower timeframes: 15m and 30m both show solid bearish trends (3/5), while the 1H and 2H are forming bearish trends (2/5). The alignment across the intraday timeframes strengthens the bearish case, suggesting the current decline is more than a mere pullback.

However, the higher timeframes (4H, 8H, 12H, 1D) are still bullish, albeit choppy and sideways (1/5), which introduces a conflicting backdrop. This means the bearish move is likely a correction within a larger uptrend, and the downside could be limited. Key levels to watch are immediate resistance at 0.99825, which should now act as overhead supply, and nearest support at 0.98997, a critical floor that, if broken, would signal a deeper retracement. Traders should monitor price action around these levels for confirmation or invalidation of the bearish signal.
Catalysts
  • ▼ Multiple indicators (trendline, moving averages, BOP) all point lower, creating strong confluence.
  • ▼ Lower timeframes (15m, 30m) confirm bearish momentum, reinforcing the signal.
  • ▼ Death Cross on 20/50 EMAs adds a classic bearish crossover signal.
  • ▼ Price is below the broken trendline, which now acts as resistance.
Risk Factors
  • ▲ Higher timeframes (4H and above) are still bullish, which could limit downside and lead to a bounce.
  • ▲ The 1H trend is only 'forming' (2/5), so it may not be fully established yet.
  • ▲ A break back above 0.99825 would invalidate the bearish setup.
  • ▲ Support at 0.98997 is nearby; a strong bounce there could signal a false breakdown.
Symbol AUD/CAD
Timeframe 1H
Direction SELL
Conviction 86%
Strength STRONG
Date 2026-09-28 04:00
cat_ Forex Forex

Support & Resistance

Level Price Formed
R1 0.99825 2026-09-18
S1 0.98997 2026-09-16
S2 0.98932 2026-09-15
S3 0.98930 2026-09-14

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