AUD/CAD – 1H – SELL
SELL 6× UPDATED CLOSED
17 hours ago
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Signal evolution
Conviction, candle by candle
conviction per candle
11× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads
Dropped below 35% 11× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.
Signals Fired
These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (28 Sep 2026, 02:00 UTC, updated 6× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ | EMA CROSS 20 50 Death Cross | indicator | 2.77 |
| ▲ | ER Level Cross Up | indicator | 2.09 |
| ▼ | MAMA PRICE Retreat Down | indicator | 2.02 |
| ▼ | DEMA Retreat Down | indicator | 2.01 |
| ▼ | Trendline Break Downbreak + retest | trendline | 1.98 |
| ▲ | BBANDS LOWER Retreat Up | indicator | 1.98 |
| ▼ | EMA Retreat Down | indicator | 1.95 |
| ▼ | KAMA Retreat Down | indicator | 1.95 |
| ▼ | MIDPRICE Retreat Down | indicator | 1.73 |
| ▼ | MIDPOINT Retreat Down | indicator | 1.66 |
| ▼ | Fibonacci Break DownTrend (24%)break + retest | fibonacci | 1.62 |
| ▼ | BOP Zero Cross Down | indicator | 1.50 |
| ▼ | KST Zero Cross Down | indicator | 1.48 |
| ▲ | HMA Direction Up | indicator | 1.47 |
| ▼ | Bearish Harami | candlestick | 1.19 |
Trend Context
15MDOWNSolid trend
30MDOWNSolid trend
1HDOWNTrend forming
2HDOWNTrend forming
4HDOWNChoppy / sideways
8HUPChoppy / sideways
12HUPChoppy / sideways
1DUPChoppy / sideways
Analysis
🎯 Key Takeaways
- Strong bearish confluence on the 1H timeframe with trendline break, death cross, and multiple MA retreats.
- Intraday trends (15m, 30m) align bearish, supporting the sell signal.
- Higher timeframes remain bullish, so this is likely a correction within a larger uptrend.
- Watch 0.99825 as resistance and 0.98997 as key support for direction.
The AUD/CAD 1H chart has fired a dense cluster of bearish signals, led by a Trendline Break Down and a Death Cross on the 20/50 EMAs, with momentum oscillators (BOP Zero Cross Down) and trend-following MAs (DEMA, EMA, KAMA, MAMA) all retreating lower. This confluence points to a well-established downtrend on the 1H timeframe, and the bearish momentum is confirmed by lower timeframes: 15m and 30m both show solid bearish trends (3/5), while the 1H and 2H are forming bearish trends (2/5). The alignment across the intraday timeframes strengthens the bearish case, suggesting the current decline is more than a mere pullback.
However, the higher timeframes (4H, 8H, 12H, 1D) are still bullish, albeit choppy and sideways (1/5), which introduces a conflicting backdrop. This means the bearish move is likely a correction within a larger uptrend, and the downside could be limited. Key levels to watch are immediate resistance at 0.99825, which should now act as overhead supply, and nearest support at 0.98997, a critical floor that, if broken, would signal a deeper retracement. Traders should monitor price action around these levels for confirmation or invalidation of the bearish signal.
However, the higher timeframes (4H, 8H, 12H, 1D) are still bullish, albeit choppy and sideways (1/5), which introduces a conflicting backdrop. This means the bearish move is likely a correction within a larger uptrend, and the downside could be limited. Key levels to watch are immediate resistance at 0.99825, which should now act as overhead supply, and nearest support at 0.98997, a critical floor that, if broken, would signal a deeper retracement. Traders should monitor price action around these levels for confirmation or invalidation of the bearish signal.
Catalysts
- ▼ Multiple indicators (trendline, moving averages, BOP) all point lower, creating strong confluence.
- ▼ Lower timeframes (15m, 30m) confirm bearish momentum, reinforcing the signal.
- ▼ Death Cross on 20/50 EMAs adds a classic bearish crossover signal.
- ▼ Price is below the broken trendline, which now acts as resistance.
Risk Factors
- ▲ Higher timeframes (4H and above) are still bullish, which could limit downside and lead to a bounce.
- ▲ The 1H trend is only 'forming' (2/5), so it may not be fully established yet.
- ▲ A break back above 0.99825 would invalidate the bearish setup.
- ▲ Support at 0.98997 is nearby; a strong bounce there could signal a false breakdown.
Symbol
AUD/CAD
Timeframe
1H
Direction
SELL
Conviction
86%
Strength
STRONG
Date
2026-09-28 04:00
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 0.99825 | 2026-09-18 |
| S1 | 0.98997 | 2026-09-16 |
| S2 | 0.98932 | 2026-09-15 |
| S3 | 0.98930 | 2026-09-14 |