AUD/JPY – 1H – SELL

SELL 4× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-09-28 04:00 UTC 17 hours ago

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 5× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 5× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (28 Sep 2026, 02:00 UTC, updated 4× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	SMA CROSS 20 50 Death Cross	indicator	2.52
▼	SMA 200 Retreat Down	indicator	2.37
▲	KDJ OS Exit	indicator	1.73
▲	STOCH KD Cross Up	indicator	1.72
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.61
▲	BBANDS LOWER Retreat Up	indicator	1.41
▲	CCI OS Exit	indicator	1.38
▼	Bearish Harami	candlestick	1.32
▲	HMA Direction Up	indicator	0.90
▼	Spinning Top Bearish	candlestick	0.82

Trend Context

15M

DOWNSolid trend

30M

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

UPSolid trend

12H

UPSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

The 1H signal is bearish, backed by a Death Cross and BOP turning negative, but the bounce from oversold levels could cause short-term noise.
Trend alignment is bearish from 15m to 4h, but the 8h and 12h are bullish, creating a conflict that could limit downside.
Watch the nearest support at 110.42400 as a potential target; a break below it would strengthen the bearish case.
The signal strength is weak, so expect choppy price action rather than a clean, strong move.

The AUD/JPY 1H signal is a SELL, driven by a cluster of bearish momentum and trend indicators. The BOP Zero Cross Down and SMA CROSS 20 50 Death Cross confirm selling pressure, while the CCI OS Exit and KDJ OS Exit suggest the market is bouncing from oversold conditions, which could be a retest of resistance before lower prices. The BBANDS LOWER Retreat Up and HMA Direction Up add a short-term counter-trend nuance, indicating that the immediate move might see a minor pullback within the broader bearish structure. The SMA 200 Retreat Down reinforces the longer-term downtrend on this timeframe.

Across timeframes, the trend is consistently bearish from 15m up to 4h, with solid scores on the lower timeframes and forming trends on the higher ones. This alignment supports the sell signal. However, the 8h and 12h timeframes are bullish, which presents a conflicting higher-timeframe picture and suggests that the bearish move may be a correction within a larger uptrend. The nearest support at 110.42400 is a key target, while resistance at 112.61300 is the immediate barrier. The weak signal strength and the presence of counter-trend signals (HMA Direction Up) warrant caution, as the move may lack momentum.

Catalysts

▼ Trend alignment across 15m to 4h is solidly bearish, with multiple timeframes confirming the sell direction.
▼ The SMA CROSS 20 50 Death Cross and BOP Zero Cross Down provide strong confluence for bearish momentum.
▼ The SMA 200 Retreat Down indicates that the longer-term 1H trend is also turning lower, supporting the sell signal.
▼ The bounce from oversold conditions (CCI OS Exit, KDJ OS Exit) may set up a retest of resistance, offering a better entry for sellers.

Risk Factors

▲ The 8h and 12h timeframes are bullish, suggesting that the bearish move could be a pullback within a larger uptrend, risking a reversal.
▲ The HMA Direction Up and BBANDS LOWER Retreat Up signal short-term buying pressure, which could push price back toward resistance.
▲ The weak signal strength (64%) and 'weak' label indicate that momentum may not be strong enough to sustain a large move.
▲ If price breaks above the nearest resistance at 112.61300, the bearish setup would be invalidated, and the trend could reverse.