EUR/JPY – 30M – SELL

SELL 9× UPDATED CLOSED
18 hours ago
EUR/JPY  ·  30M
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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

100 50 0 entry now · 22 × 30m 20%
conviction per candle 12× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 12× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (28 Sep 2026, 11:30 UTC, updated 9× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

Signals Fired Category Weight
▼ Descending Trianglebreak + retest chart_pattern 4.22
▼ KAMA Retreat Down indicator 2.02
▼ MIDPRICE Retreat Down indicator 1.95
▼ EMA Retreat Down indicator 1.93
▼ MIDPOINT Retreat Down indicator 1.91
▼ DEMA Retreat Down indicator 1.87
▼ HT TRENDLINE Retreat Down indicator 1.87
▼ MAMA PRICE Retreat Down indicator 1.84
▲ RSI OS Entry indicator 1.79
▼ STOCH KD Cross Down indicator 1.39
▲ WILLR OS Entry indicator 1.34
▼ HMA Direction Down indicator 0.82
▼ TTM TREND Trend Down indicator 0.79

Trend Context

15M
DOWNSolid trend
30M
DOWNSolid trend
1H
DOWNTrend forming
2H
DOWNTrend forming
4H
DOWNTrend forming
8H
DOWNSolid trend
12H
DOWNSolid trend
1D
DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways
  • Strong bearish confluence: a Descending Triangle breakdown is backed by multiple momentum and trend indicators.
  • Trend alignment is bearish across all timeframes, with solid trend scores on the 15m, 30m, 8h, 12h, and 1d charts.
  • Immediate resistance at 180.79800 is the key level to watch; a break above it would weaken the bearish case.
  • The signal is very strong (91% probability), indicating high confidence in continued downside movement.
The EUR/JPY 30-minute chart has triggered a very strong SELL signal, combining a Descending Triangle breakdown with a cluster of momentum and trend-following indicators. The simultaneous RSI OS Entry, STOCH KD Cross Down, and WILLR OS Entry suggest that bearish momentum is accelerating from oversold conditions, while the DEMA, EMA, HT TRENDLINE, and KAMA Retreat Down signals confirm that price is pulling back within a broader downtrend. The confluence of chart pattern and indicator groups points to a high-probability continuation setup, with the nearest resistance at 180.79800 serving as the immediate barrier to the upside.

Trend alignment across timeframes is consistently bearish, with solid trend scores on the 15m, 30m, 8h, 12h, and 1d charts, and trend-forming scores on the 1h, 2h, and 4h charts. This broad-based bearish alignment supports the validity of the signal, as multiple timeframes are moving in the same direction. The lack of a defined nearest support level suggests that downside may be open, but traders should be cautious of potential volatility around key psychological levels or prior lows. The signal's high probability (91%) and very strong strength underscore the conviction behind this bearish outlook.
Catalysts
  • ▼ Descending Triangle pattern provides a classic bearish continuation setup.
  • ▼ Multiple indicators (RSI, STOCH, WILLR, DEMA, EMA, HT TRENDLINE, KAMA) all point to bearish momentum and trend retreat.
  • ▼ Consistent bearish trend across multiple timeframes, including solid trends on higher timeframes (8h, 12h, 1d).
  • ▼ High probability score (91%) and very strong signal strength.
Risk Factors
  • ▲ Oversold conditions (RSI OS Entry, WILLR OS Entry) could lead to a short-term bounce or consolidation.
  • ▲ Lack of a defined support level means the downside could be unpredictable, with potential for sharp reversals.
  • ▲ If price breaks above the 180.79800 resistance, the bearish setup would be invalidated.
  • ▲ Trend scores on the 1h, 2h, and 4h are only 'trend forming' (2/5), which may indicate less conviction on those timeframes.
Symbol EUR/JPY
Timeframe 30M
Direction SELL
Conviction 20%
Strength WEAK
Date 2026-09-28 14:00
cat_ Forex Forex

Support & Resistance

Level Price Formed
R1 180.79800 2026-09-21
R2 181.54500 2026-09-18

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