EUR/JPY – 30M – SELL
SELL 9× UPDATED CLOSED
18 hours ago
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Signal evolution
Conviction, candle by candle
conviction per candle
12× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads
Dropped below 35% 12× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.
Signals Fired
These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (28 Sep 2026, 11:30 UTC, updated 9× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ | Descending Trianglebreak + retest | chart_pattern | 4.22 |
| ▼ | KAMA Retreat Down | indicator | 2.02 |
| ▼ | MIDPRICE Retreat Down | indicator | 1.95 |
| ▼ | EMA Retreat Down | indicator | 1.93 |
| ▼ | MIDPOINT Retreat Down | indicator | 1.91 |
| ▼ | DEMA Retreat Down | indicator | 1.87 |
| ▼ | HT TRENDLINE Retreat Down | indicator | 1.87 |
| ▼ | MAMA PRICE Retreat Down | indicator | 1.84 |
| ▲ | RSI OS Entry | indicator | 1.79 |
| ▼ | STOCH KD Cross Down | indicator | 1.39 |
| ▲ | WILLR OS Entry | indicator | 1.34 |
| ▼ | HMA Direction Down | indicator | 0.82 |
| ▼ | TTM TREND Trend Down | indicator | 0.79 |
Trend Context
15MDOWNSolid trend
30MDOWNSolid trend
1HDOWNTrend forming
2HDOWNTrend forming
4HDOWNTrend forming
8HDOWNSolid trend
12HDOWNSolid trend
1DDOWNSolid trend
Analysis
🎯 Key Takeaways
- Strong bearish confluence: a Descending Triangle breakdown is backed by multiple momentum and trend indicators.
- Trend alignment is bearish across all timeframes, with solid trend scores on the 15m, 30m, 8h, 12h, and 1d charts.
- Immediate resistance at 180.79800 is the key level to watch; a break above it would weaken the bearish case.
- The signal is very strong (91% probability), indicating high confidence in continued downside movement.
The EUR/JPY 30-minute chart has triggered a very strong SELL signal, combining a Descending Triangle breakdown with a cluster of momentum and trend-following indicators. The simultaneous RSI OS Entry, STOCH KD Cross Down, and WILLR OS Entry suggest that bearish momentum is accelerating from oversold conditions, while the DEMA, EMA, HT TRENDLINE, and KAMA Retreat Down signals confirm that price is pulling back within a broader downtrend. The confluence of chart pattern and indicator groups points to a high-probability continuation setup, with the nearest resistance at 180.79800 serving as the immediate barrier to the upside.
Trend alignment across timeframes is consistently bearish, with solid trend scores on the 15m, 30m, 8h, 12h, and 1d charts, and trend-forming scores on the 1h, 2h, and 4h charts. This broad-based bearish alignment supports the validity of the signal, as multiple timeframes are moving in the same direction. The lack of a defined nearest support level suggests that downside may be open, but traders should be cautious of potential volatility around key psychological levels or prior lows. The signal's high probability (91%) and very strong strength underscore the conviction behind this bearish outlook.
Trend alignment across timeframes is consistently bearish, with solid trend scores on the 15m, 30m, 8h, 12h, and 1d charts, and trend-forming scores on the 1h, 2h, and 4h charts. This broad-based bearish alignment supports the validity of the signal, as multiple timeframes are moving in the same direction. The lack of a defined nearest support level suggests that downside may be open, but traders should be cautious of potential volatility around key psychological levels or prior lows. The signal's high probability (91%) and very strong strength underscore the conviction behind this bearish outlook.
Catalysts
- ▼ Descending Triangle pattern provides a classic bearish continuation setup.
- ▼ Multiple indicators (RSI, STOCH, WILLR, DEMA, EMA, HT TRENDLINE, KAMA) all point to bearish momentum and trend retreat.
- ▼ Consistent bearish trend across multiple timeframes, including solid trends on higher timeframes (8h, 12h, 1d).
- ▼ High probability score (91%) and very strong signal strength.
Risk Factors
- ▲ Oversold conditions (RSI OS Entry, WILLR OS Entry) could lead to a short-term bounce or consolidation.
- ▲ Lack of a defined support level means the downside could be unpredictable, with potential for sharp reversals.
- ▲ If price breaks above the 180.79800 resistance, the bearish setup would be invalidated.
- ▲ Trend scores on the 1h, 2h, and 4h are only 'trend forming' (2/5), which may indicate less conviction on those timeframes.
Symbol
EUR/JPY
Timeframe
30M
Direction
SELL
Conviction
20%
Strength
WEAK
Date
2026-09-28 14:00
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 180.79800 | 2026-09-21 |
| R2 | 181.54500 | 2026-09-18 |