EUR/USD – 8H – BUY

BUY NEW

2026-09-28 16:00 UTC 19 hours ago

41.7 % ↑ +6.4 zur Vorkerze

WEAK Swing

▲ Bullish 85 % (7.11) ▼ Bearish 15 % (1.27)

5 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit

50.7% of closed signals in this class ended above zero

model score 34.5 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the figure above is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Überzeugung · 3 Kerzen

⚠ Opened against the trend in all 8 timeframes. Target hit 6.4 % vs 17.9 % average · stopped out 13.7 % vs 11.1 % (Forex, 233 closed runs). Not a reason to act — a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 2× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 2× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (29 Sep 2026, 00:00 UTC). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	STOCHF KD Cross Up	indicator	1.33
▲	HMA Retreat Up	indicator	1.31
▼	QSTICK Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.27
▲	BOP Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.25
▲	HT SINE Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.21
▲	Long Legged Doji	candlestick	1.09
▲	HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Up	indicator	0.95
▲	Bullish Harami Cross	candlestick	0.92

Trend Context

15M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

30M

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNVery strong trend

12H

DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Bullish reversal signals on the 8H chart, but the broader trend is bearish.
Watch resistance at 1.16538; a break could confirm a stronger move up.
Support at 1.13529 is critical; losing it invalidates the bullish setup.
Confluence of indicator and candlestick signals adds weight, but trend alignment is against the trade.

The EUR/USD 8H chart has fired a cluster of bullish signals, including a BOP Zero Cross Up, STOCHF KD Cross Up, HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Up, HT SINE Zero Cross Up, HMA Retreat Up, QSTICK Zero Cross Down, a Bullish Harami Cross, and a Long Legged Doji. These signals collectively suggest a potential short-term reversal or a bullish retracement within the broader bearish trend. The presence of both indicator and candlestick signals adds confluence, but the overall trend across timeframes remains bearish, with the 8H showing a very strong downtrend (4/5). This suggests that any upside may be corrective rather than a full trend reversal.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 1.16538 and support at 1.13529. A break above resistance could signal a stronger reversal, while a failure to hold support would invalidate the bullish case. The bearish alignment across timeframes, especially the strong 8H trend, argues for caution. The bullish signals may be early, and traders should wait for confirmation before committing. The probability of 84% and strong strength are notable, but they must be weighed against the prevailing downtrend.

Catalysts

▲ Multiple bullish signals fired on the 8H timeframe, including BOP, STOCHF, HT PHASOR, HT SINE, HMA, QSTICK, and candlestick patterns.
▲ Strong signal probability (84%) and strength rating (strong) suggest high conviction.
▲ The Long Legged Doji and Bullish Harami Cross indicate potential bullish reversal at a key level.
▲ QSTICK Zero Cross Down and HMA Retreat Up suggest buying pressure emerging.

Risk Factors

▼ The dominant trend is bearish across all timeframes, with the 8H showing a very strong downtrend (4/5).
▼ The bullish signals may be a counter-trend bounce; a failure to break resistance could lead to a continuation lower.
▼ If price breaks below support at 1.13529, the bullish setup is invalidated.
▼ The bearish alignment on lower timeframes (15m, 30m) may indicate that the reversal is not yet confirmed.