AUD/JPY – 1H – SELL

SELL 7× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-09-29 10:00 UTC 20 hours ago

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 10× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 10× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (29 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTC, updated 7× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	BBANDS LOWER Break Down	indicator	2.93
▼	ALMA Retreat Down	indicator	2.89
▼	MAMA PRICE Retreat Down	indicator	2.57
▼	MIDPOINT Retreat Down	indicator	2.57
▼	MA Retreat Down	indicator	2.52
▼	HT TRENDLINE Retreat Down	indicator	2.46
▼	EMA Retreat Down	indicator	2.44
▼	DEMA Retreat Down	indicator	2.42
▼	MIDPRICE Retreat Down	indicator	2.29
▼	MACD Signal Cross Down	indicator	2.21
▼	TSI Signal Cross Down	indicator	1.89
▲	STOCHRSI KD Cross Up	indicator	1.69
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.65
▲	HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Up	indicator	1.51
▼	Bearish Harami	candlestick	1.36
▲	WILLR OS Entry	indicator	1.34

Trend Context

15M

DOWNSolid trend

30M

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

12H

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bearish signal on AUD/JPY 1H with multiple indicators confirming downward momentum.
Trend is bearish across all timeframes, with solid alignment on 1H and higher.
Key resistance at 112.30300; a break above would invalidate the sell setup.
Support at 109.90300 is the next target; watch for a potential bounce there.

The AUD/JPY 1H chart is firmly bearish, with a very strong sell signal (91% probability) fired at 2026-09-29 12:00 UTC. The confluence of multiple indicators—BOP Zero Cross Down, MACD Signal Cross Down, and a host of moving average retreats (DEMA, EMA, HT Trendline)—confirms strong downward momentum. The STOCHRSI KD Cross Up and WILLR OS Entry suggest a potential short-term bounce, but the overall bearish structure and the breakdown below the lower Bollinger Band indicate that any retracement is likely to be sold into.

Trend alignment across timeframes is overwhelmingly bearish, with solid trends (3/5) on 15m, 1H, 2H, 4H, 8H, and 12H, and trend forming (2/5) on 30m and 1D. This multi-timeframe agreement adds conviction to the sell signal. The immediate resistance at 112.30300 is the key level to watch; a break above it would invalidate the bearish setup. Support at 109.90300 is the next target, but the strength of the trend suggests that level could be tested. Traders should monitor for any signs of momentum fading or a daily timeframe reversal.

Catalysts

▼ Multi-timeframe bearish alignment (solid trends on 1H and above) supports the sell signal.
▼ Multiple indicators (BOP, MACD, moving averages) all point to continued downward pressure.
▼ Breakdown below the lower Bollinger Band confirms strong bearish momentum.
▼ High signal probability (91%) and very strong strength indicate high conviction.

Risk Factors

▲ STOCHRSI KD Cross Up and WILLR OS Entry suggest oversold conditions, which could trigger a short-term bounce.
▲ A break above the nearest resistance at 112.30300 would invalidate the bearish setup.
▲ The daily timeframe shows only a trend forming (2/5), so a reversal on the daily could counter the intraday bearishness.
▲ Momentum may fade if the price approaches the support at 109.90300, leading to a consolidation or reversal.