AUD/JPY – 30M – BUY

BUY 8× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-09-29 10:30 UTC 20 hours ago

⚠ Opened against the trend in all 8 timeframes. Target hit 6.4 % vs 17.9 % average · stopped out 13.7 % vs 11.1 % (Forex, 233 closed runs). Not a reason to act — a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 13× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 13× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (29 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTC, updated 8× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	STOCH KD Cross Up	indicator	1.73
▲	HMA Retreat Up	indicator	1.68
▲	BBANDS LOWER Retreat Up	indicator	1.62
▲	ZLMA Retreat Up	indicator	1.58
▲	BOP Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.54
▲	HMA Direction Up	indicator	1.38
▲	Bullish Harami	candlestick	1.35
▲	HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Up	indicator	1.27
▼	Below The Stomach	candlestick	1.08

Trend Context

15M

DOWNSolid trend

30M

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

12H

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Multiple bullish signals fired on the 30-minute chart, suggesting a short-term bounce.
All timeframes are bearish, so this is likely a counter-trend move.
Watch resistance at 110.60500 and support at 109.90300.
High probability and strength indicate strong short-term momentum.

The AUD/JPY 30-minute chart has fired a cluster of bullish signals, including a BOP Zero Cross Up, STOCH KD Cross Up, BBANDS LOWER Retreat Up, HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Up, HMA Retreat Up, HMA Direction Up, ZLMA Retreat Up, and a Bullish Harami candlestick pattern. This confluence suggests a short-term bounce is underway, with momentum shifting from bearish to bullish. However, the broader trend across all timeframes from 15 minutes to daily remains bearish, indicating that this is likely a counter-trend move within a larger downtrend.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 110.60500 and support at 109.90300. A break above resistance could signal a more significant reversal, while a failure to hold support would invalidate the bullish setup. The signal's high probability (92%) and very strong strength suggest the bounce has good momentum, but traders should be cautious given the conflicting higher timeframe trends.

Catalysts

▲ Confluence of multiple indicators and a bullish candlestick pattern.
▲ High signal probability (92%) and very strong strength.
▲ Momentum shift indicated by STOCH KD and BOP zero cross up.
▲ Price retreating from lower Bollinger Band and HMA/ZLMA turning up.

Risk Factors

▼ All higher timeframes are bearish, conflicting with the 30-minute bullish signal.
▼ Resistance at 110.60500 is nearby and could cap upside.
▼ If price fails to hold support at 109.90300, the bullish setup is invalidated.
▼ Counter-trend moves can be short-lived and prone to reversal.