USD/CAD – 4H – SELL

SELL 3× UPDATED

2026-10-16 20:00 UTC 2 days ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +0.32 %

Entry

1.41376

Target

1.37593 +2.68 %

closes in profit

Stop

1.43000 −1.15 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price · now candle 4 of 12

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 50 of 100 forex 4h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 404 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 404 closed forex 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

26 % at target avg +0.43 % 24 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.30 % 32 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.30 % 18 % at stop avg −0.48 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: ALMA Break Down, T3 Break Down, RSI Regular Bear Div +11 more

Trend at entry: in 6 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 25,177 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

35.3 % ↓ −25.7 vs previous candle

WEAK ⚡ Confluence +4% Swing

▲ Bullish 5 % (1.26) ▼ Bearish 95 % (26.30)

model score 19.2 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 5 candles

Loading…

Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 1× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 1× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (16 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC, updated 3× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	ALMA Break Down	indicator	3.04
▼	T3 Break Down	indicator	3.02
▼	RSI Regular Bear Div	divergence	2.68
▼	BBANDS LOWER Break Down	indicator	2.54
▼	Williams %R Regular Bear Div	divergence	2.44
▼	MAMA PRICE Retreat Down	indicator	2.33
▼	KELTNER LOWER Lower Breakout	indicator	2.30
▼	HT TRENDLINE Retreat Down	indicator	2.28
▼	EMA Retreat Down	indicator	2.03
▼	MIDPOINT Retreat Down	indicator	2.01
▼	DEMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.97
▼	KDJ Cross Down	indicator	1.33
▼	STOCHF KD Cross Down	indicator	1.32
▲	RSX OS Entry	indicator	1.24
▲	ZSCORE Extreme Low	indicator	1.18
▲	HT TRENDMODE Mode to Trend	indicator	1.03
▼	SUPERTREND LEG Leg2 Down	indicator3	0.00

Trend Context

15M

DOWNTrend forming

30M

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

12H

UPSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Bearish momentum is strong on the 4H with multiple indicators confirming a sell-off.
Lower timeframes are aligned bearish, but the 12H and 1D remain bullish, so this may be a pullback.
Watch the 1.37593 support; a break below could extend the decline, while a move back above 1.43000 would invalidate the bearish setup.
The high probability (93%) and very strong strength suggest a high-conviction signal, but higher timeframe bias warrants caution.

The 4H USD/CAD chart is flashing a dense cluster of bearish signals, all aligned in the same direction. The Stochastic Fast (STOCHF) has delivered a bearish cross down, while price has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting a surge of downside momentum. Multiple moving-average-based retreat signals (DEMA, EMA, midpoint, T3, and MAMA price) confirm that price is pulling back from recent highs, and a break down of the trendline further validates the bearish move. The confluence of these indicators across different categories (divergence, indicator3, and indicator) points to a strong, coordinated sell-off.

Across timeframes, the lower timeframes (15m to 4H) are all bearish, with the 2H showing a solid trend (3/5), which supports the immediate downside. However, the 12H and 1D timeframes remain bullish with solid trends, indicating that the larger uptrend is still intact. This suggests the current sell-off may be a corrective pullback within a broader bullish structure. Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 1.43000, which now acts as a ceiling, and the nearest support at 1.37593, which is a critical floor. A break below support would strengthen the bearish case, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the signal.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple retreat signals (DEMA, EMA, midpoint, T3, MAMA) converge, all pointing down.
▼ Bollinger Band lower break and Stochastic cross down confirm strong downside momentum.
▼ Trendline break adds technical confluence to the bearish case.
▼ Alignment of bearish trends across 15m to 4H timeframes supports the immediate move.

Risk Factors

▲ The 12H and 1D timeframes are still bullish, which could mean this is only a correction within a larger uptrend.
▲ If price reclaims the 1.43000 resistance, the bearish signal would be invalidated.
▲ Momentum could fade if stochastic reaches oversold conditions, leading to a bounce.
▲ The nearest support at 1.37593 is a strong level; a failure to break it could trigger a reversal.