AUD/JPY – 30M – SELL

SELL 1× UPDATED

2026-10-19 19:00 UTC 1 hour ago

The plan for this signal Running · now −0.00 %

Entry

110.602

Target

109.628 +0.88 %

closes in profit

Stop

111.133 −0.48 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 16 candles (8 hours), at the market price · now candle 2 of 16

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 51 of 100 forex 30m signals ended in profit · on average −0.01 % per trade 1,978 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 1,978 closed forex 30m signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

17 % at target avg +0.24 % 34 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.11 % 40 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.12 % 9 % at stop avg −0.37 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: ZLMA Break Down, Fibonacci Break DownTrend (24%), ALMA Retreat Down +4 more

Trend at entry: in 3 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 25,177 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

35.3 % ↓ −25.7 vs previous candle

WEAK ⚡ Confluence +27% Scalping

▲ Bullish 5 % (1.25) ▼ Bearish 95 % (23.12)

model score 12.4 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 3 candles

⚠ Opened against the trend in 5 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 13.1 % vs 18.8 % on average · stopped out 14.5 % vs 12.4 % (forex, 503 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 1× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 1× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (19 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC, updated 1× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	ZLMA Break Down	indicator	2.28
▼	Fibonacci Break DownTrend (24%)break + retest	fibonacci	2.18
▲	RSX OB Exit	indicator	1.61
▼	ALMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.37
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.25
▼	TSI Signal Cross Down	indicator	1.23
▼	ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.22
▼	DEMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.20
▲	HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Up	indicator	1.18
▲	STC OS Entry	indicator	1.11

Trend Context

15M

UPSolid trend

30M

UPVery strong trend

UPSolid trend

UPTrend forming

DOWNTrend forming

12H

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Short-term sell signal on AUD/JPY, but higher timeframes are bullish — likely a pullback, not a reversal.
Multiple indicators (DEMA, ALMA, HMA, TSI, ERI) align to suggest fading upside momentum.
Key levels: support at 109.62800 (break extends downside) and resistance at 111.13300 (hold negates signal).
Monitor momentum closely: the 30m trend is very strong, so any bounce could be sharp.

The SELL signal on AUD/JPY's 30-minute chart fires at a time when the intraday trend is firmly bullish, creating a short-term counter-trend setup. The confluence of multiple indicators — DEMA Retreat Down, ALMA Retreat Down, HMA Retreat Down, TSI Signal Cross Down, and ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down — suggests that the recent upside momentum is fading and a pullback is likely. The RSX OB Exit and STC OS Entry further confirm that the short-term overbought conditions are unwinding. However, the higher timeframes (15m to 4h) are bullish, with the 30m showing a very strong trend (4/5), which implies the sell signal may be a corrective move rather than a reversal.

Key levels to watch: the nearest resistance at 111.13300 and support at 109.62800. A break below the support could extend the bearish correction, while a hold above resistance would negate the signal. The 8h, 12h, and 1d trends are bearish but only forming (2/5), suggesting possible longer-term downside alignment. Traders should monitor momentum closely, as the signal's moderate strength and the conflicting higher timeframe bias warrant caution.

Catalysts

▼ Confluence of trend-following indicators (DEMA, ALMA, HMA) all retreating at the same time.
▼ Exit from overbought conditions (RSX OB Exit) and entry into oversold (STC OS Entry) supports downside continuation.
▼ Crossing of TSI and ERI below zero adds bearish momentum confirmation.
▼ Longer timeframes (8h and above) are already bearish, potentially aligning with the signal if the pullback deepens.

Risk Factors

▲ Higher timeframes (15m-2h) are bullish with solid trend scores, arguing against sustained downside.
▲ The 30m trend is very strong (4/5) — momentum could resume upward, invalidating the signal.
▲ Resistance at 111.13300 is close; a break above it would negate the bearish setup.
▲ Signal strength is moderate, not high, reducing conviction.