USD/CAD – 4H – BUY

BUY 5× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-10-21 13:00 UTC 2 days ago

The plan for this signal Closed after the holding time · result −0.36 %

Entry

1.40564

Target

1.43000 +1.73 %

closes in profit

Stop

1.37593 −2.11 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price

So far 50 of 100 forex 4h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 465 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 465 closed forex 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

26 % at target avg +0.43 % 25 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.30 % 31 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.30 % 18 % at stop avg −0.47 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: SMA 200 Break Up, ERI BULL Zero Cross Up, STOCHRSI KD Cross Up +2 more

Trend at entry: in 1 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 27,668 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

⚠ Opened against the trend in 7 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 9.0 % vs 18.5 % on average · stopped out 17.1 % vs 12.4 % (forex, 432 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 7× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 7× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (21 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC, updated 5× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	SMA 200 Break Up	indicator	2.82
▲	ERI BULL Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.69
▲	STOCHRSI KD Cross Up	indicator	1.63
▲	TEMA Retreat Up	indicator	1.39
▲	KELTNER LOWER Lower Retreat	indicator	1.09
▼	Shooting Star	candlestick	1.07
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	0.90

Trend Context

15M

DOWNTrend forming

30M

DOWNTrend forming

UPSolid trend

DOWNVery strong trend

DOWNSolid trend

12H

DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

4H buy signal fires against strong bearish higher timeframes; treat as a counter-trend bounce, not a reversal.
Bullish confluence on 4H (multiple indicator cross-ups) suggests short-term upside potential.
Watch 1.43000 resistance: a break could extend the bounce; failure keeps the bearish bias.
Invalidation below 1.37593 support would negate the bullish setup.

The 4H BUY signal on USD/CAD is firing against a predominantly bearish backdrop across higher timeframes, with strong bearish trends on the 2H and 4H. The confluence of bullish indicators (STOCHRSI KD Cross Up, SMA 200 Break Up, TEMA Retreat Up, ER Level Cross Down, ERI BULL Zero Cross Up, KELTNER LOWER Lower Retreat, and a Shooting Star) suggests a potential corrective bounce within the larger downtrend. The 1H timeframe shows a solid bullish trend, which may support short-term upside, but the 15m and 30m are bearish, indicating conflicting momentum at the lower end.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 1.43000 and support at 1.37593. A break above resistance could signal a more sustained reversal, while a loss of support would invalidate the bullish case. Given the strong bearish trends on higher timeframes, this signal may represent a counter-trend opportunity rather than a trend change. Traders should treat this as a tactical long within a broader bearish context, with tight risk management and a clear invalidation level.

Catalysts

▲ Multiple bullish indicator crossovers on the 4H timeframe (STOCHRSI, SMA 200, TEMA, ERI) provide strong confluence.
▲ The 1H timeframe shows a solid bullish trend, offering some alignment for the bounce.
▲ The Shooting Star pattern, though typically bearish, here may indicate exhaustion of the prior bearish move, supporting a rebound.
▲ The signal probability is high (82%) with strong strength, increasing confidence in the move.

Risk Factors

▼ Higher timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H, 12H, 1D) are all bearish, which could overwhelm the 4H bounce.
▼ The 15m and 30m are bearish, showing no immediate confirmation at the lowest levels.
▼ The nearest resistance at 1.43000 is close and may cap upside; a failure to break it would likely lead to a retest of support.
▼ If the bounce fades and price drops below 1.37593 support, the bullish signal is invalidated and the downtrend resumes.