USD/JPY – 12H – SELL

SELL 2× UPDATED

2026-10-21 09:00 UTC 2 days ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +0.82 %

Entry

158.127

Target

152.883 +3.32 %

closes in profit

Stop

158.949 −0.52 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 9 candles (4.5 days), at the market price · now candle 4 of 9

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 51 of 100 forex signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 5,280 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 5,280 closed forex signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

19 % at target avg +0.36 % 32 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.17 % 37 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.19 % 12 % at stop avg −0.44 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: MACD Hidden Bear Div, MIDPOINT Retreat Down, DEMA Retreat Down +10 more

Trend at entry: in 5 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 27,668 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

35.3 % – vs previous candle

WEAK ⚡ Confluence +52% Position

▲ Bullish 0 % (0.00) ▼ Bearish 100 % (97.38)

model score 16.4 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 5 candles

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 2× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 2× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (21 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC, updated 2× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	MACD Hidden Bear Div	divergence	2.68
▼	MIDPOINT Retreat Down	indicator	2.24
▲	QSTICK Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.80
▼	DEMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.77
▼	MIDPRICE Retreat Down	indicator	1.75
▼	BIAS Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.70
▼	TTM TREND Trend Down	indicator	1.63
▼	ICHIMOKU TK Cross Down	indicator	1.58
▼	CCI Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.57
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.42
▲	STC OS Entry	indicator	1.35
▼	DI CROSS Cross Down	indicator	1.26
▼	ALMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.25
▲	Long Legged Doji	candlestick	1.16
▼	HT SINE Cross Down	indicator	1.15
▼	DM CROSS Cross Down	indicator	1.11

Trend Context

15M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

30M

UPChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

UPChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bearish signal on 12H with 89% probability and very strong strength, driven by a wide array of indicators.
Higher timeframes (2H-12H) are bearish, but lower timeframes are choppy and weakly bullish, indicating a fragile trend.
Key levels: resistance at 158.94900 and support at 152.88300; watch for a break below support to confirm the downtrend.
The trend is still forming on 2H, so confirmation on lower timeframes is needed before acting.

The USD/JPY 12H signal is a strongly bearish confluence, with 89% probability and very strong strength. The signal is driven by a broad set of indicators: CCI Zero Cross Down, DI CROSS Cross Down, DM CROSS Cross Down, DEMA Retreat Down, MIDPOINT Retreat Down, MIDPRICE Retreat Down, HT SINE Cross Down, BIAS Zero Cross Down, and eight additional signals spanning divergence, indicator, and candlestick groups. This wide alignment suggests a coordinated downward push, likely reflecting a shift in momentum and trend structure on the 12H timeframe.

Across timeframes, the picture is mixed but leans bearish on the higher timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H, 12H), while the lower timeframes (15m, 30m, 1h) are bullish but choppy and weak (trend score 1/5). The 1D is also bullish but choppy. This suggests that the bearish signal is emerging against a backdrop of weak bullish noise, and the bearish trend is still forming (2/5 on 2H). The nearest resistance at 158.94900 and support at 152.88300 define the key levels; a break below support would confirm the bearish move, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate it.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple indicator groups (divergence, indicator, candlestick) align in the bearish direction, increasing signal reliability.
▼ Higher timeframe trends (2H, 4H, 8H, 12H) are all bearish, supporting the 12H signal.
▼ The signal strength is very strong, and probability is high, indicating robust confluence.
▼ Nearest support at 152.88300 provides a clear target; a break below would likely accelerate the move.

Risk Factors

▲ Lower timeframes (15m, 30m, 1h) are bullish, albeit choppy, which could lead to short-term counter-trend moves.
▲ The 1D trend is bullish, so the bearish signal may be a correction within a larger bullish structure.
▲ Momentum is weak (trend scores 1/5) on most timeframes, so the bearish move may lack follow-through.
▲ If price reclaims the resistance at 158.94900, the bearish signal would be invalidated.