BTC/USDT – 30M – SELL

SELL 2× UPDATED

2026-10-22 06:30 UTC 1 hour ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +0.31 %

Entry

82,491.56

Target

81,322.22 +1.42 %

closes in profit

Stop

84,898.00 −2.92 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 16 candles (8 hours), at the market price · now candle 2 of 16

Target and stop are fixed (taken from chart levels).

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 54 of 100 crypto 30m signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 10,370 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 10,370 closed crypto 30m signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

33 % at target avg +1.11 % 21 % holding time ended, in profit avg +1.05 % 23 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −1.08 % 23 % at stop avg −1.48 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

This trade, as of now: about 40 of 100 trades in a state like this reached their target. For comparison: 33 of 100 across all crypto 30m signals.

Measured per candle on past crypto trades and checked on trades not used for learning (off by 0.5 points on average, 1.3 on live trades). Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: EMA 200 Break Down, ALMA Break Down, HMA Break Down +2 more

Trend at entry: in 4 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 26,397 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

61.2 % ↓ −5.9 vs previous candle

MODERATE ⚡ Confluence +3% Scalping

▲ Bullish 21 % (3.16) ▼ Bearish 79 % (12.07)

model score 79.3 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (5091 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 3 candles

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 50% — below this the other side leads

Weakening. Conviction is lower than at entry — worth watching, no action implied.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (22 Oct 2026, 07:02 UTC, updated 2× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	EMA 200 Break Down	indicator	2.72
▼	ALMA Break Down	indicator	2.21
▼	HMA Break Down	indicator	1.94
▼	MAMA PRICE Retreat Down	indicator	1.80
▼	T3 Break Down	indicator	1.66
▲	HT TRENDMODE Mode to Trend	indicator	1.62

Trend Context

15M

DOWNVery strong trend

30M

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

UPTrend forming

UPChoppy / sideways

12H

UPChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Multiple moving averages (EMA 200, ALMA, HMA) and T3 have all broken down, confirming a bearish shift on the 30m timeframe.
Short-term timeframes (15m-1h) are aligned bearish with strong trend scores, supporting the SELL signal.
Higher timeframes (4h and above) are still bullish but weak, so the down move may be a correction rather than a reversal.
Watch the 84,898 resistance and 81,322 support levels for confirmation or invalidation of the trend.

The 30-minute SELL signal on BTC/USDT is backed by a cluster of trend-following indicators, including breaks below the EMA 200, ALMA, HMA, and T3, alongside a MAMA price retreat and a shift in HT TRENDMODE to Trend. This confluence points to a decisive rejection of higher prices and a shift in short-term momentum. The bearish alignment across the 15m, 30m, and 1h timeframes, all with solid to very strong trends, reinforces the signal, suggesting that the current down move is not an isolated event but part of a coherent short-term trend.

However, the signal stands in contrast to the higher timeframes, which remain bullish, though their trend scores are weak or choppy. The 4h, 8h, 12h, and 1d timeframes all show bullish tendencies, but with trend scores of 1-2 out of 5, they lack conviction. This suggests the bearish move is likely a correction within a larger bullish structure, and its sustainability depends on whether the lower timeframe trend can persist. Key levels to monitor are the nearest resistance at 84,898, which if reclaimed would invalidate the bearish thesis, and the nearest support at 81,322, which if broken could accelerate the decline.

Catalysts

▼ Confluence of six independent indicators all firing in the same direction strengthens the signal.
▼ Trend alignment across 15m, 30m, and 1h timeframes with solid to very strong scores.
▼ Breakdown of multiple moving averages suggests a sustained shift in momentum, not just a transient spike.
▼ HT TRENDMODE switching to Trend confirms a regime change on the higher timeframe.

Risk Factors

▲ Higher timeframes (4h-1d) remain bullish, which could mean the bearish move is only a pullback and may reverse.
▲ Nearest resistance at 84,898 is close; a reclaim of this level would invalidate the bearish setup.
▲ Trend scores on higher timeframes are weak/choppy, indicating a lack of conviction that could lead to a sideways consolidation.
▲ If the bearish momentum fades before reaching support, the signal could fail to play out fully.