USD/JPY – 1H – SELL

SELL 4× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-10-21 20:00 UTC 2 days ago

The plan for this signal Closed at target · result +0.27 %

Entry

158.127

Target

157.694 +0.27 %

closes in profit

Stop

158.603 −0.30 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 15 candles (15 hours), at the market price

So far 52 of 100 forex 1h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 1,216 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 1,216 closed forex 1h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

16 % at target avg +0.37 % 37 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.15 % 36 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.18 % 12 % at stop avg −0.39 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: HMA Break Down, SMA 200 Break Down, KAMA Break Down +12 more

Trend at entry: in 5 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 27,668 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 2× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 2× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (21 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC, updated 4× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	HMA Break Down	indicator	2.60
▼	SMA 200 Break Down	indicator	2.50
▼	KAMA Break Down	indicator	2.26
▲	STOCH OB Exit	indicator	2.21
▲	CCI OB Exit	indicator	1.65
▼	Fibonacci Break DownTrend (24%)break + retest	fibonacci	1.65
▼	ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.53
▼	CMO Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.42
▼	RSI Midline Cross Down	indicator	1.42
▼	CTI OB Entry	indicator	1.42
▼	BIAS Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.33
▼	ICHIMOKU Cloud Bearish	indicator	1.20
▼	KELTNER MID Cross Down	indicator	1.19
▼	DPO Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.01
▼	Long Line Bearish	candlestick	0.98
▼	HMA Direction Down	indicator	0.97
▼	TTM TREND Trend Down	indicator	0.94

Trend Context

15M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

30M

UPChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

UPChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bearish signal on 1H with 89% probability, backed by multiple indicators.
Mixed higher timeframe trends; bearish on 2H and above, bullish but choppy on 1H and below.
Key levels: resistance at 158.39100, support at 157.82600.
Watch for a break below support to confirm, or a reclaim of resistance to invalidate.

The USD/JPY 1H signal is strongly bearish, with a probability of 89% and very strong strength. A confluence of indicators confirms the bearish momentum: CCI and STOCH both exited overbought territory, RSI crossed below its midline, and CMO and BIAS both crossed zero to the downside. Additionally, KAMA and SMA 200 broke down, and CTI entered overbought, all pointing to a sustained downward move. The signal is reinforced by Fibonacci and candlestick patterns, adding to the conviction.

Across timeframes, the trend is mixed but leans bearish on the higher timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H, 12H) while the 15M, 30M, 1H, and 1D are bullish but choppy and sideways. This suggests that the bearish signal may be fighting against the immediate higher timeframe trend, but the overall structure on the 2H and above supports the sell. The nearest resistance at 158.39100 and support at 157.82600 are key levels; a break below support would confirm the bearish move, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate it.

Catalysts

▼ Confluence of overbought exits and midline crosses (CCI, STOCH, RSI, CMO, BIAS) signaling momentum shift.
▼ Breakdown of KAMA and SMA 200 adds trend confirmation.
▼ Fibonacci and candlestick patterns align with the bearish direction.
▼ Higher timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H, 12H) are bearish, supporting the sell.

Risk Factors

▲ The 1H and lower timeframes are bullish (choppy/sideways), which could counter the bearish momentum.
▲ The 1D timeframe is bullish, indicating a potential conflict with the longer-term trend.
▲ If price reclaims the resistance at 158.39100, the bearish signal weakens.
▲ Choppy/sideways conditions on many timeframes could lead to false breakouts or whipsaws.