AUD/USD – 4H – BUY

BUY 4× UPDATED

2026-10-22 21:00 UTC 1 day ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +0.25 %

Entry

0.70194

Target

0.71398 +1.72 %

closes in profit

Stop

0.68941 −1.79 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price · now candle 5 of 12

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 50 of 100 forex 4h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 465 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 465 closed forex 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

26 % at target avg +0.43 % 25 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.30 % 31 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.30 % 18 % at stop avg −0.47 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: KAMA Retreat Up, MA Retreat Up, MIDPRICE Retreat Up +6 more

Trend at entry: in 3 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 27,668 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

61.0 % – vs previous candle

VERY STRONG Swing

▲ Bullish 93 % (51.30) ▼ Bearish 7 % (3.85)

model score 93.0 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 6 candles

⚠ Opened against the trend in 5 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 12.4 % vs 18.5 % on average · stopped out 15.7 % vs 12.4 % (forex, 581 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 1× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 1× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (23 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC, updated 4× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	KAMA Retreat Up	indicator	2.42
▲	MA Retreat Up	indicator	2.24
▲	MIDPRICE Retreat Up	indicator	2.18
▲	SMA Retreat Up	indicator	2.18
▲	EMA Retreat Up	indicator	2.13
▲	HMA Retreat Up	indicator	2.08
▲	MIDPOINT Retreat Up	indicator	2.04
▼	KST Signal Cross Down	indicator	1.97
▼	MOM Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.96
▼	ROC Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.96
▼	ROCR Cross Down	indicator	1.96
▼	QSTICK Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.86
▲	ALMA Retreat Up	indicator	1.82
▲	BOP Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.65
▼	CCI Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.39

Trend Context

15M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

30M

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

UPTrend forming

UPChoppy / sideways

12H

UPTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

4H bullish signal with strong indicator confluence, but lower timeframes are bearish, so expect choppy price action.
Key levels: resistance at 0.71398, support at 0.68941. A break above resistance confirms; a drop below support invalidates.
The 1D timeframe is bearish and solid, so this is likely a counter-trend rally rather than a full reversal.
Momentum indicators (BOP, CCI, MOM, ROC) all turned up from oversold conditions, supporting a short-term bounce.

The 4H AUD/USD signal is bullish, driven by a cluster of momentum and trend indicators (BOP, CCI, MOM, ROC, ROCR, EMA, KAMA, MA) all turning upward from oversold or flat conditions. This suggests a fresh push higher on the 4H timeframe, which is currently the only timeframe showing a bullish bias among the lower ones. The 8H and 12H timeframes are also bullish, though choppy, indicating that the medium-term trend is supportive but not yet robust. The 1D timeframe remains bearish with a solid trend score, which acts as a counterweight, so the bullish signal is best viewed as a counter-trend correction within a larger downtrend.

Key levels to monitor: the nearest resistance at 0.71398 and support at 0.68941. A break above resistance would confirm the bullish momentum and potentially shift the higher timeframes, while a drop below support would invalidate the signal. The confluence of multiple zero-cross and retreat indicators on the 4H chart adds weight to the signal, but the mixed lower timeframes (15m-2h bearish) and the strong 1D bearish trend mean the move may be limited. Watch for the 4H trend to strengthen and for price to hold above support to sustain the bullish case.

Catalysts

▲ Multiple zero-cross and retreat indicators align on the 4H, showing strong momentum shift.
▲ 8H and 12H timeframes are bullish, providing medium-term support for the move.
▲ The signal fires at a time when the 4H trend is forming, suggesting early-stage trend development.
▲ Proximity to support (0.68941) may offer a base for buyers to defend.

Risk Factors

▼ The 1D timeframe is bearish with a solid trend, which could cap any upside and lead to a reversal.
▼ Lower timeframes (15m-2h) are bearish, indicating that the bullish momentum may not yet be broad-based.
▼ Resistance at 0.71398 is nearby and could stall the advance if not broken with strength.
▼ If price falls below the 4H support (0.68941), the bullish signal is invalidated and the bearish trend likely resumes.