USD/JPY – 1H – SELL

SELL 7× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-10-22 23:00 UTC 1 day ago

The plan for this signal Closed after the holding time · result −0.16 %

Entry

156.541

Target

155.956 +0.37 %

closes in profit

Stop

158.344 −1.15 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 15 candles (15 hours), at the market price

So far 52 of 100 forex 1h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 1,216 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 1,216 closed forex 1h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

16 % at target avg +0.37 % 37 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.15 % 36 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.18 % 12 % at stop avg −0.39 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: Bear Flag, KELTNER LOWER Lower Breakout, T3 Break Down +7 more

Trend at entry: in 8 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 27,668 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 7× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 7× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (23 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC, updated 7× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	Bear Flagbreak + retest	chart_pattern	3.14
▼	KELTNER LOWER Lower Breakout	indicator	2.81
▼	T3 Break Down	indicator	2.52
▼	ALMA Break Down	indicator	2.44
▲	STOCH OS Exit	indicator	2.15
▼	KAMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.71
▼	MIDPOINT Retreat Down	indicator	1.71
▼	MAMA PRICE Retreat Down	indicator	1.67
▼	EMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.66
▼	MIDPRICE Retreat Down	indicator	1.64
▼	DEMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.59
▲	RSI OS Entry	indicator	1.22

Trend Context

15M

DOWNSolid trend

30M

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong short-term bearish alignment across 15m to 2h, with a Bear Flag pattern and multiple moving averages retreating down.
RSI oversold entry and STOCH oversold exit suggest the move may be short-lived; watch for a bounce if momentum fades.
Higher timeframes (8h and above) are choppy/sideways, so the bearish signal is not yet confirmed on a larger scale.
Key invalidation level to monitor is the nearest resistance at 158.344; a reclaim would weaken the bearish case.

The USD/JPY 1H signal is strongly bearish (91% probability, very strong) driven by a Bear Flag pattern and a cluster of momentum indicators all retreating lower. The RSI is in oversold entry and STOCH shows oversold exit, indicating that the selling pressure is active but may be approaching exhaustion in the short term. The DEMA, EMA, KAMA, MAMA PRICE, and MIDPOINT all retreating down confirm that the trend is aligned across multiple moving averages, reinforcing the bearish case.

Across timeframes, the bearish trend is solid from 15m up to 2h (3/5 each), while the 4h is forming (2/5) and higher timeframes (8h, 12h, 1d) are choppy or sideways (1/5). This suggests that the strongest conviction is in the short-term horizon, and the higher timeframes do not yet provide strong confirmation. The nearest resistance is at 158.344, which could serve as a reference for invalidation if price reclaims that level. There is no defined nearest support, so downside targets are open, but the lack of higher-timeframe alignment is a caution.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple moving averages (DEMA, EMA, KAMA, MAMA PRICE, MIDPOINT) all retreating down, confirming trend alignment.
▼ Bear Flag pattern is a classic continuation pattern, suggesting the move may extend.
▼ Solid trend scores (3/5) across four consecutive timeframes (15m to 2h) provide a cohesive short-term bearish picture.
▼ Very strong signal strength (91% probability) indicates high confidence in the pattern.

Risk Factors

▲ RSI oversold entry and STOCH oversold exit imply the market is already stretched, increasing the risk of a short-term bounce.
▲ Higher timeframes (8h, 12h, 1d) are choppy/sideways, meaning the bearish trend is not yet established on those scales.
▲ No nearest support defined, so there is no clear downside target; the move may run out of steam without a defined floor.
▲ If price reclaims the 158.344 resistance, the bearish signal would be invalidated.