USD/JPY – 2H – SELL

SELL 5× UPDATED

2026-10-23 03:00 UTC 22 hours ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +0.09 %

Entry

156.975

Target

156.247 +0.46 %

closes in profit

Stop

158.603 −1.04 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 14 candles (28 hours), at the market price · now candle 8 of 14

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 49 of 100 forex 2h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 763 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 763 closed forex 2h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

20 % at target avg +0.41 % 29 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.20 % 36 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.22 % 15 % at stop avg −0.45 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: SMA Retreat Down, KAMA Retreat Down, MIDPRICE Retreat Down +7 more

Trend at entry: in 7 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 27,668 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

61.0 % – vs previous candle

VERY STRONG Intraday

▲ Bullish 4 % (0.86) ▼ Bearish 96 % (19.53)

model score 95.8 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 9 candles

Loading…

Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 3× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 3× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (23 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC, updated 5× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	AO Saucer Bullish	indicator	2.36
▲	CTI OS Exit	indicator	1.94
▼	SMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.70
▼	KAMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.69
▼	MIDPRICE Retreat Down	indicator	1.64
▼	HT TRENDLINE Retreat Down	indicator	1.58
▲	BBANDS LOWER Retreat Up	indicator	1.50
▼	MAMA PRICE Retreat Down	indicator	1.50
▼	ERI BULL Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.49
▲	RSX OS Exit	indicator	1.48
▼	EMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.47
▼	MIDPOINT Retreat Down	indicator	1.43
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.17
▼	Hanging Man	candlestick	0.75

Trend Context

15M

UPSolid trend

30M

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNChoppy / sideways

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Bearish signal on USD/JPY 2H with 73% probability, supported by a cluster of retreat patterns.
Trend is aligned bearish across 30m to 4h, but higher timeframes are choppy—so expect possible range behavior.
Watch support at 156.951: a break confirms downside; resistance at 158.603 is the invalidation zone.
The 15m bullish outlier is likely noise; if it strengthens, it may signal a short-term bounce.

The USD/JPY 2H signal is firmly bearish, with a 73% probability and moderate strength. A broad cluster of indicators—including BOP Zero Cross Down, EMA Retreat Down, and multiple moving-average retreats—confirms downside momentum. The trend is aligned across the 30m through 4h timeframes, all showing solid bearish trends, while the 15m timeframe is the sole bullish outlier, suggesting short-term noise rather than a reversal. The 8h, 12h, and 1d timeframes are choppy/sideways, indicating that the larger picture lacks a strong directional bias, so the current move may be a corrective phase within a broader range.

Key levels to watch are resistance at 158.603 and support at 156.951. A break below support would confirm the bearish signal, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate it. The confluence of retreat patterns on multiple indicators strengthens the case for continued downside, but the choppy higher timeframes warrant caution. Traders should monitor whether the 15m bullish pressure fades and whether the 2H trend remains intact as price approaches support.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple moving-average retreats (EMA, KAMA, MAMA, MIDPOINT, MIDPRICE) all point lower, creating strong confluence.
▼ BOP Zero Cross Down adds momentum confirmation to the bearish picture.
▼ Trend alignment across 30m, 1h, 2h, and 4h timeframes supports the signal's direction.
▼ Nearest support is a clear target; a break would likely accelerate downside.

Risk Factors

▲ Higher timeframes (8h, 12h, 1d) are choppy/sideways, suggesting the pair may be range-bound rather than trending.
▲ The 15m timeframe is bullish, which could lead to short-term bounces against the signal.
▲ If price reclaims resistance at 158.603, the bearish setup would be invalidated.
▲ Moderate strength and no strong trend scores above 3/5 mean the move may lack conviction.