USD/JPY – 4H – SELL

SELL NEW

2026-10-23 17:00 UTC 1 hour ago

The plan for this signal Running · now ±0.00 %

Entry

156.830

Target

156.376 +0.29 %

closes in profit

Stop

158.603 −1.13 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price · now candle 0 of 12

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 50 of 100 forex 4h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 465 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 465 closed forex 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

26 % at target avg +0.43 % 25 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.30 % 31 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.30 % 18 % at stop avg −0.47 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: MIDPRICE Retreat Down, MAMA PRICE Retreat Down, HT TRENDLINE Retreat Down +7 more

Trend at entry: in 6 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 27,668 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

59.3 % – first candle

VERY STRONG Swing

▲ Bullish 15 % (3.38) ▼ Bearish 85 % (19.80)

model score 85.4 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

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Signal evolution

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (23 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	MIDPRICE Retreat Down	indicator	1.91
▼	MAMA PRICE Retreat Down	indicator	1.86
▼	HT TRENDLINE Retreat Down	indicator	1.85
▲	RSX OS Exit	indicator	1.82
▼	DEMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.65
▼	MIDPOINT Retreat Down	indicator	1.63
▲	HT SINE Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.57
▼	EMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.55
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.49
▼	KAMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.41
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.15
▼	Bearish Harami	candlestick	0.64

Trend Context

15M

UPChoppy / sideways

30M

UPChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bearish confluence on 4H: multiple retreat signals align, giving high confidence in a sell bias.
Timeframe alignment is supportive: 1H through 8H are bearish, with 2H and 4H solid trends.
Resistance at 158.60300 is the key invalidation level; a break above would negate the signal.
Support at 156.37600 is the primary downside target; watch for a break to confirm continuation.

The 4H USD/JPY signal is strongly bearish (85% probability, very strong), driven by a broad cluster of retreat signals across multiple indicators—BOP Zero Cross Down, DEMA, EMA, HT TRENDLINE, KAMA, MAMA PRICE, MIDPOINT, and MIDPRICE—all aligning to confirm downward momentum. The trend structure supports this: the 1H, 2H, 4H, and 8H timeframes are all bearish, with the 2H and 4H showing solid trends. However, the 15m and 30m are bullish and choppy, suggesting near-term counter-trend noise, while the 12h and 1d are also choppy/sideways, indicating that the broader daily picture lacks strong conviction. The confluence of retreat signals on the 4H timeframe provides a robust short-to-medium-term bearish case, but traders should be cautious of the mixed higher timeframe signals.

Key levels to watch: the nearest resistance at 158.60300 acts as the invalidation zone—if price reclaims this, the bearish thesis weakens. The nearest support at 156.37600 is the primary downside target; a break below it would confirm continuation. The proximity of resistance (158.60) to the current price (implied) suggests limited upside room, while the support is roughly 2.2 units away, offering a substantial target. Given the strong trend scores on the 2H-8H timeframes, the path of least resistance is lower, but the choppy 12H and 1D trends remind us that this is a tactical move rather than a major reversal.

Catalysts

▼ Broad indicator agreement: 12+ signals from BOP, DEMA, EMA, HT TRENDLINE, KAMA, MAMA PRICE, MIDPOINT, and MIDPRICE all retreating.
▼ Trend alignment across 1H-8H timeframes, with solid trends on 2H and 4H reinforcing the bearish case.
▼ Resistance at 158.60300 is nearby and likely to cap upside, increasing the probability of a downward move.
▼ Very strong strength score (85%) suggests high conviction in the signal.

Risk Factors

▲ Higher timeframe conflict: 12H and 1D are choppy/sideways, lacking a strong bearish trend, which could limit follow-through.
▲ Near-term bullish noise on 15m and 30m may cause temporary pullbacks or false breakouts.
▲ If price pushes above 158.60300, the bearish signal is invalidated; watch for a close above this level.
▲ Momentum could fade if the 4H trend weakens; monitor for a shift to choppy/sideways on the 4H.