EUR/JPY

On the 15m to 2h charts, multiple bullish signals have fired: trendline breaks, momentum crossovers (BOP, STOCHF), and moving-average retreats. These indicate a bounce off support near 185.347. However, all higher timeframes remain bearish, and the bounce is likely a corrective pullback within the larger downtrend. The nearest resistance is 185.948; a rejection there would confirm continued bearish pressure. The 15m trend is only forming, so the bounce may lack follow-through. Traders should treat this as a short-term opportunity rather than a trend reversal.

The 4h and 8h timeframes are bearish, though choppy (trend score 1/5). This indicates weak momentum but a downward bias. The fundamental intervention adds to the bearish case. Any upward move toward the resistance cluster around 185.948 is likely to attract sellers. The lack of a strong trend suggests range-bound action, but the bias is lower. A break below 185.347 would open the path toward further declines. The mid-term outlook favors downside, with limited upside potential unless the resistance is decisively broken.

The long-term technical picture is bearish, with 12h and 1d timeframes showing consistent downtrends. The fundamental input is significantly bearish: the US Treasury is directly selling EUR/JPY, a rare move designed to weaken the euro. This aligns with the technical bias. However, the intervention is 27 days old, and its effect may have faded; market depth could absorb the flows. Nevertheless, the overall direction is down. Support at 185.347 is critical; a break below would confirm continuation. Resistance at 185.948 remains the ceiling.