BTC/USDT – 4H – SELL

SELL 3× UPDATED

2026-10-26 16:00 UTC 1 day ago

The plan for this signal Running · now −0.91 %

Entry

80,020.01

Target

79,220.74 +1.00 %

closes in profit

Stop

84,898.00 −6.10 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price · now candle 7 of 12

Target and stop are fixed (taken from chart levels).

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 55 of 100 crypto 4h signals ended in profit · on average +0.03 % per trade 1,689 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 1,689 closed crypto 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

32 % at target avg +2.68 % 24 % holding time ended, in profit avg +2.80 % 24 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −2.93 % 21 % at stop avg −3.77 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

This trade, as of now: about 20 of 100 trades in a state like this reached their target. For comparison: 32 of 100 across all crypto 4h signals.

Measured per candle on past crypto trades and checked on trades not used for learning (off by 0.5 points on average, 1.3 on live trades). Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: MAMA PRICE Retreat Down, EMA Retreat Down, SMA Retreat Down +7 more

Trend at entry: in 8 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 29,782 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

37.9 % ↑ +2.0 vs previous candle

WEAK Swing

▲ Bullish 6 % (2.01) ▼ Bearish 94 % (32.50)

model score 8.5 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (5091 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 8 candles

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Signal evolution

Events for BTC/USDT

Full calendar

14:30TodayUSDEIA Crude Oil Stocks Change●●●Forecast -2.067MPrevious -3.060Min 14h
18:00TodayUSDFed Interest Rate Decision●●●Previous 4.00%in 17h
18:30TodayUSDFOMC Press Conference●●●in 18h

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 4× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 4× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (26 Oct 2026, 20:02 UTC, updated 3× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	MAMA PRICE Retreat Down	indicator	2.27
▼	EMA Retreat Down	indicator	2.26
▼	SMA Retreat Down	indicator	2.26
▲	AO Saucer Bullish	indicator	2.18
▼	MA Retreat Down	indicator	1.99
▼	HT TRENDLINE Retreat Down	indicator	1.88
▲	KST Signal Cross Up	indicator	1.78
▼	KDJ Cross Down	indicator	1.62
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.47
▼	TTM TREND Trend Down	indicator	1.42
▼	STOCHF KD Cross Down	indicator	1.39
▲	AROON Cross Up	indicator	1.32
▲	AROONOSC Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.32
▲	BBANDS LOWER Retreat Up	indicator	0.99
▼	Bearish Engulfing	candlestick	0.86

Trend Context

15M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

30M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

The 4H signal is strongly bearish with 74% probability, driven by momentum and trend indicators aligning for a downside move.
The 1H, 2H, and 4H timeframes all show solid downtrends, providing strong confluence for the sell signal.
Key levels: resistance at 84898.00 and support at 79220.74; a break below support confirms further downside.
Higher timeframes (12H, 1D) are choppy and weak, so the trend may lack strong follow-through beyond the immediate move.

The 4H BTC/USDT signal stack is firmly bearish, led by a cluster of momentum and trend-following indicators. The AROON Cross Up and AROONOSC Zero Cross Up suggest short-term upward pressure within the broader downtrend, but the simultaneous BOP Zero Cross Down, STOCHF KD Cross Down, and multiple EMA/MA Retreat Down signals indicate that sellers are regaining control and that the recent bounce is fading. The retreat of price from the lower Bollinger Band and the trendline further confirm downside continuation. With 74% probability and moderate strength, the signal points to a continued move lower, likely toward the nearest support at 79220.74.

Across timeframes, the bearish bias is consistent but not uniform. The 1H, 2H, and 4H charts all show solid downtrends (3/5), providing the strongest confluence, while the 15m, 30m, 12h, and 1d are bearish but choppy or sideways (1/5). This suggests that the primary trend is intact on the trading timeframe, but higher-timeframe momentum is weak, which could limit the depth of the move. Key levels to watch are resistance at 84898.00, which aligns with the recent swing high and the EMA cluster, and support at 79220.74. A break below support would open the path for further downside, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the bearish setup.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple indicators (AROON, BOP, STOCHF, EMA, MA) all point in the same bearish direction, increasing signal reliability.
▼ Solid downtrend alignment across the 1H, 2H, and 4H timeframes supports the continuation of the bearish move.
▼ Price retreating from the lower Bollinger Band and trendline suggests that bounces are being sold into.
▼ Nearest support at 79220.74 is well below current price, providing room for the downtrend to play out.

Risk Factors

▲ Higher timeframes (12H, 1D) are choppy and sideways, which could cap the downside momentum.
▲ The AROON Cross Up and AROONOSC Zero Cross Up signals indicate short-term upward pressure that could trigger a bounce.
▲ If price reclaims the 84898.00 resistance, the bearish signal would be invalidated and a reversal could occur.
▲ The lower timeframe (15m, 30m) is choppy, suggesting that the immediate move may be erratic and prone to whipsaws.