USD/JPY – 30M – SELL

SELL NEW

2026-11-04 21:00 UTC 6 minutes ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +0.02 %

Entry

158.440

Target

157.397 +0.66 %

closes in profit

Stop

158.768 −0.21 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 16 candles (8 hours), at the market price · now candle 0 of 16

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 51 of 100 forex 30m signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 2,949 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 2,949 closed forex 30m signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

18 % at target avg +0.23 % 34 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.11 % 40 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.12 % 9 % at stop avg −0.35 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: MIDPOINT Break Down, ALMA Break Down, TEMA Break Down +10 more

Trend at entry: in 2 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 34,623 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

61.0 % – first candle

VERY STRONG Scalping

▲ Bullish 5 % (1.14) ▼ Bearish 95 % (21.54)

model score 95.0 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

⚠ Opened against the trend in 6 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 11.5 % vs 18.2 % on average · stopped out 14.6 % vs 12.2 % (forex, 616 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Events for USD/JPY

Full calendar

23:50TodayJPYBoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes●●○in 2h
13:30TomorrowUSDUnit Labor Costs q/q●●○Forecast 0.5%Previous 1.2%in 15h
13:30TomorrowUSDNonfarm Productivity q/q●●○Forecast 1.9%Previous 1.4%in 15h

All times UTC.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (4 Nov 2026, 21:30 UTC). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	MIDPOINT Break Down	indicator	2.52
▼	ALMA Break Down	indicator	2.32
▼	TEMA Break Down	indicator	2.29
▼	ICHIMOKU TK Cross Down	indicator	2.21
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.84
▼	ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.45
▼	HT SINE Cross Down	indicator	1.41
▼	HMA Direction Down	indicator	1.31
▼	TTM TREND Trend Down	indicator	1.27
▼	MOM Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.25
▼	ROC Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.25
▼	ROCR Cross Down	indicator	1.25
▼	QSTICK Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.18
▲	Long Legged Doji	candlestick	1.14

Trend Context

15M

UPChoppy / sideways

30M

UPChoppy / sideways

DOWNChoppy / sideways

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

UPChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Multiple momentum and trend indicators are aligned bearish on the 30-minute chart, signaling strong short-term downside pressure.
The 95% probability and very strong strength suggest a high-confidence sell signal, but the bullish higher-timeframe trend warrants caution.
Watch the nearest support at 157.397; a break below could accelerate the move, while a reclaim of 158.674 would invalidate the signal.
Choppy/sideways conditions across most timeframes mean the move may lack strong follow-through, so risk management is key.

A dense cluster of momentum and trend-following indicators has fired sell signals on the USD/JPY 30-minute chart, including MOM, ROC, ROCR, MIDPOINT, TEMA, HT SINE, ERI, and ALMA breakdowns. This broad-based bearish alignment on the short timeframe suggests a strong, immediate downside push, with a very strong probability score of 95%. However, the higher-timeframe trend is predominantly bullish, albeit choppy and sideways, which creates a conflicting backdrop. The 8h and 12h charts are bearish, but the 1d trend remains bullish, indicating that this sell signal may be a counter-trend move within a larger bullish structure.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 158.674 and support at 157.397. A break below support would reinforce the bearish momentum and could open the door for further downside, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the signal. Given the choppy conditions across most timeframes, traders should be cautious of false breakouts and look for confirmation on higher timeframes before committing to the short side.

Catalysts

▼ Broad confluence of 14 sell signals across momentum and trend-following indicators on the 30-minute chart.
▼ Bearish alignment on the 8h and 12h timeframes supports the short-term downside move.
▼ Very strong signal strength and high probability score indicate robust technical conviction.
▼ The cluster of breakdowns suggests a coordinated shift in short-term market structure.

Risk Factors

▲ The 1d and 4h trends are bullish, which could limit downside and lead to a reversal.
▲ Choppy/sideways conditions across most timeframes increase the risk of false signals and whipsaws.
▲ A move back above the nearest resistance at 158.674 would invalidate the sell signal.
▲ Momentum may fade if the price fails to break below the nearest support at 157.397.