AUD/USD – 12H – BUY

BUY Counter-trend 1× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-11-08 22:00 UTC 2 days ago

The plan for this signal Closed at stop · result −0.56 %

Entry

0.69034

Target

0.70680 +2.38 %

closes in profit

Stop

0.68649 −0.56 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 9 candles (4.5 days), at the market price

So far 50 of 100 forex 12h signals ended in profit · on average −0.02 % per trade 258 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 258 closed forex 12h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

19 % at target avg +0.69 % 31 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.44 % 32 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.47 % 18 % at stop avg −0.74 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: HMA Retreat Up, KELTNER LOWER Lower Retreat, WILLR OS Exit +7 more

Trend at entry: in 3 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 38,768 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

⚠ Opened against the trend in 5 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 11.6 % vs 18.6 % on average · stopped out 15.6 % vs 12.4 % (forex, 836 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Events for AUD/USD

Full calendar

13:30TodayUSDContinuing Jobless Claims●●○in 11h
13:30TodayUSDInitial Jobless Claims●●●in 11h
15:00TodayUSDExisting Home Sales m/m●●○Forecast 0.0%Previous 1.5%in 13h

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 2× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 2× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (9 Nov 2026, 10:00 UTC, updated 1× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	HMA Retreat Up	indicator	1.90
▲	KELTNER LOWER Lower Retreat	indicator	1.85
▲	WILLR OS Exit	indicator	1.84
▲	ACCBANDS LOWER Lower Retreat	indicator	1.63
▲	STOCHRSI KD Cross Up	indicator	1.62
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.46
▲	BOP Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.40
▲	RSI OS Exit	indicator	1.40
▲	KDJ OS Exit	indicator	1.39
▲	HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Up	indicator	1.06
▲	Closing Marubozu Bullish	candlestick	1.06

Trend Context

15M

UPChoppy / sideways

30M

UPChoppy / sideways

UPTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

12H

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Multiple oversold-exit and momentum cross signals align on the 12H chart, indicating a likely short-term bullish reversal.
Higher timeframes (2H–1D) remain bearish, so this is a counter-trend bounce within a larger downtrend.
Watch the nearest resistance at 0.70680; a close above it would strengthen the bullish case, while support at 0.68941 is the invalidation zone.
Probability is high (92%) but strength is very strong — still, respect the conflicting higher timeframe trend.

The AUD/USD 12H signal has fired a dense cluster of bullish oscillators — BOP Zero Cross Up, RSI OS Exit, STOCHRSI KD Cross Up, WILLR OS Exit, HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Up, ER Level Cross Down, KDJ OS Exit, and HMA Retreat Up — alongside additional candlestick and indicator confirmations. This confluence suggests that downside momentum is exhausting and a short-term bounce is building, with probability pegged at 92% and very strong strength.

However, the higher timeframes remain predominantly bearish: 2H, 4H, and 8H show solid downtrends, while 12H and 1D are forming bearish trends. The bullish signals are confined to the lower timeframes (15m–1H), which are choppy or just starting to form a trend. This creates a classic counter-trend setup — the immediate momentum is upward, but the broader structure is still pointing down. Key levels to watch are resistance at 0.70680 and support at 0.68941; a break above resistance would shift the bias, while a loss of support would invalidate the bounce.

Catalysts

▲ Strong confluence of multiple oscillator signals (RSI, STOCHRSI, WILLR, KDJ) all exiting oversold conditions simultaneously.
▲ BOP Zero Cross Up and HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Up indicate improving buying pressure and phase alignment.
▲ HMA Retreat Up and ER Level Cross Down suggest trend efficiency is improving and price is pulling back within a potential reversal.
▲ Lower timeframe trends (15m–1H) are turning bullish, providing early confirmation of momentum shift.

Risk Factors

▼ Higher timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H) are solidly bearish — the bounce could be a retracement within a larger downtrend.
▼ Nearest resistance at 0.70680 is a strong barrier; failure to break it would likely see the bounce fade.
▼ Oscillator signals can be early and prone to whipsaws in choppy conditions — watch for momentum to stall.
▼ Invalidation: a daily close below support at 0.68941 would negate the bullish setup and likely resume the downtrend.