AVAX/USDT – 4H – BUY

BUY Counter-trend 3× UPDATED

2026-11-09 00:00 UTC 1 day ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +6.09 %

Entry

8.0290

Target

9.1600 +14.09 %

closes in profit

Stop

7.7752 −3.16 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price · now candle 6 of 12

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 54 of 100 crypto 4h signals ended in profit · on average −0.01 % per trade 2,155 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 2,155 closed crypto 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

32 % at target avg +2.60 % 22 % holding time ended, in profit avg +2.76 % 24 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −2.71 % 21 % at stop avg −3.66 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: ADX Trend Strong, STOCHF KD Cross Up, KELTNER LOWER Lower Retreat +4 more

Trend at entry: in 0 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 37,587 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

39.0 % ↓ −24.8 vs previous candle

WEAK Swing

▲ Bullish 88 % (20.38) ▼ Bearish 12 % (2.81)

model score 16.5 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (5091 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 7 candles

⚠ Opened against the trend in all 8 timeframes. Target hit 9.8 % vs 31.9 % on average · stopped out 43.8 % vs 22.8 % (crypto, 4,470 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Events for AVAX/USDT

Full calendar

13:30TodayUSDCPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.5%Previous 0.6%in 7h
13:30TodayUSDCPI●●●Forecast 338.683Previous 336.298in 7h
13:30TodayUSDCore CPI n.s.a. m/m●●●Previous 0.4%in 7h

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 3× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 3× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (9 Nov 2026, 04:03 UTC, updated 3× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	ADX Trend Strong	indicator	1.90
▼	ERI BULL Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.80
▲	STOCHF KD Cross Up	indicator	1.46
▲	KELTNER LOWER Lower Retreat	indicator	1.45
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.35
▲	SQUEEZE Squeeze Fire	indicator	1.35
▲	HT SINE Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.28
▲	BOP Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.22
▲	RSX OS Entry	indicator	0.90

Trend Context

15M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

30M

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

12H

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bullish momentum on 4H, but all higher timeframes are bearish — treat as a counter-trend bounce.
Resistance at 9.16000 is the key level; a break above could signal a reversal, while failure may lead to a retest of support.
Support at 8.00000 is the invalidation zone; losing it would negate the bullish signal.
Squeeze Fire suggests volatility expansion, so expect larger-than-usual price swings.

The 4H BUY signal for AVA/XUSDT is driven by a strong cluster of momentum and trend indicators, including ADX showing a strong trend, BOP crossing above zero, and multiple oscillators (STOCHF, HT SINE, RSX) flipping bullish from oversold conditions. The Squeeze Fire indicates a potential volatility expansion, which could amplify the move. However, the broader timeframe picture remains bearish, with all timeframes from 15m to 1D registering bearish trends, though the 2H and 12H show solid trend strength. This suggests the bullish signal may be a counter-trend bounce within a larger downtrend, with the nearest resistance at 9.16000 acting as a key hurdle.

Traders should watch whether the price can reclaim the 9.16000 resistance, which would signal a stronger reversal. A break above that level could shift the medium-term bias, but until then, the path of least resistance remains downward. The support at 8.00000 is critical; a loss of that level would invalidate the bullish setup and likely resume the broader bearish trend. Given the mixed signals, this trade is best viewed as a tactical long with tight risk management, not a trend-following entry.

Catalysts

▲ Multiple oscillators (STOCHF, HT SINE, RSX) are turning bullish from oversold conditions, suggesting momentum is shifting.
▲ BOP crossing above zero indicates buying pressure is gaining dominance.
▲ ADX shows a strong trend, which could support the bullish move if the price breaks resistance.
▲ Squeeze Fire often precedes strong directional moves, adding potential to the setup.

Risk Factors

▼ The broader trend is bearish across all timeframes, so this signal may be a short-term bounce within a downtrend.
▼ Resistance at 9.16000 is nearby and could cap upside, leading to a failed breakout.
▼ If the price loses the 8.00000 support, the bullish setup is invalidated and the downtrend likely resumes.
▼ Momentum could fade quickly if the squeeze resolves to the downside, given the bearish higher timeframe context.